📍GDP America Q2/2025 rise to the sky +3.0%, trend reversal -0.5% of the previous quarter:

📌 GDP America Q2 bounced back to +3.0% Q/Q (annualized), far exceeding the forecast of 2.5% and completely reversing from the -0.5% decline of the previous quarter. The market reacted positively, but in essence, this is not a very good data.

high inflation has overshadowed the momentum of the economy.

The real leverage has boosted GDP in Q2/2025:
- Exports contributed the most, up to +4.99% to growth (In Q1/2025, exports fell -4.66% which dragged GDP down ).
- Personal consumption improved slightly: +0.98%, compared to +0.31% in the previous quarter.
- Looking specifically at the household spending index: +1.4% Q/Q, higher than Q1 ( +0.5% ) but still below expectations of +1.5%. Americans are spending more than in Q1, but they are not too enthusiastic.

Businesses no longer have the need to stockpile.

📌 Government spending only increased slightly by +0.08%, with no significant impact.

💭 The GDP growth figure for the second quarter is very eye-catching, but in essence, exports have beautified the data, while domestic consumption, business investment, and real estate are all weak.
Moreover, total personal consumption and fixed investment rose by only +1.2% (, which is too low compared to the level needed to maintain sustainable growth).

Perhaps the Fed will not be able to rely on this data to justify extending the tightening.