Conversation with HighFreedom: Sharing Trading Strategies and Market Insights

HighFreedom is a macroeconomic analyst from a brokerage with 7-8 years of trading experience in the cryptocurrency market. In this conversation, he shares his trading strategies, insights on the macroeconomy, and predictions for the future trends of the cryptocurrency market.

1. HighFreedom's Trading Strategy

1. Core Strategy: Combining Directional Returns and Volatility Returns

• Earn directional profits: Hold Bitcoin for the long term in a bull market, without trading on fluctuations.
• Earn volatility returns: Go long with coin-based when the price is right, close the position after the price rises, and increase Bitcoin holdings.

2. Strategy Logic

• Avoid missing out on risks: Holding assets in currency can prevent missing the main upward trend.
• Reduce holding costs: Increase the number of Bitcoins through volatility operations.
• Suitable for volatile markets during a bull market: This strategy is not applicable during rapid price increases.

3. Risk Control

• Strictly control leverage: Generally, it is recommended to keep leverage within 50%.
• Choose the right market timing: avoid operating at the peak of a bull market or when the market is overheated.
• Expected drawdown controlled at 20%-30%, extreme cases may reach 40%

4. Expected Returns

• Long-term returns: During a bull market cycle, overall returns can reach 3-5 times.
• Suitable capital scale: millions of dollars level is more appropriate

2. Macroeconomics and the Cryptocurrency Market

1. Difference between participants inside and outside the venue

• On-site participants: seasoned players in the crypto space, having many coins but little money, focusing on crypto cycles, popular sectors, etc.
• Off-exchange participants: Enter through channels such as ETFs, with more money and fewer coins, viewing Bitcoin as a risk asset.

2. The Positioning of Bitcoin in Traditional Financial Markets

• Defined as growth-type digital gold
• Risk and return positioning is similar to Russell 2000 and ARKK
• Positioned in the upper-middle layer of the risk asset pyramid in the US stock market

3. Current Market Conditions

• On-site and off-site leverage clearing has been completed.
• The macro level is starting to reverse, shifting from a downturn to an upturn.
• A new bull market cycle is expected in the fourth quarter.

3. Forecast for the Future Market

1. Bitcoin Price Prediction

• It is expected that by the end of the year, on December 31, (, the price of Bitcoin may reach $100,000.

2. Outlook on the Altcoin Market

• Believe that the altcoin market will inevitably emerge.
• The price increase of altcoins depends on the overall market liquidity conditions.
• The current situation may be a bottom area, suitable for laying out quality projects.

IV. Suggestions for Trader Growth

1. Learning Path

• It is recommended to take the CFA Level I exam to systematically study the fundamentals of financial markets.
• Pay attention to on-chain data analysis, such as using tools like Glassnode.
• Cultivate market sensitivity, analyze the reasons behind the daily increase in Token prices.

2. Analysts to Watch

• Fu Peng ) Northeast Securities (: specializes in USD asset analysis
• Arthur Hayes: has deep insights into the U.S. macroeconomy
• Victor: Experienced player in the crypto space, fund manager
• Benson sunong: Provides valuable cycle indicators

Conclusion

HighFreedom emphasizes that the current market may be at the bottom, but the macro environment is improving. He suggests that investors remain patient, manage risks well, and prepare for the upcoming new bull market. At the same time, he also reminds investors to pay attention to the inflow of off-market funds and the acceptance level of cryptocurrencies by traditional financial institutions, as these factors will have a significant impact on future market trends.