Analysis of the Macroeconomic Environment and Crypto Market Dynamics

Market Overview

The current crypto market has entered a defensive consolidation phase, mainly influenced by the following factors:

• The uncertainty of the macroeconomy has increased, suppressing market risk appetite.
• The inflow momentum of funds has weakened, and structural differentiation is明显.
• Bitcoin remains relatively strong, but the upward momentum is weakening.
• Ethereum shows signs of weakness in bottom formation.
• The liquidity of small market cap tokens is depleted, and risks continue to be released.

Investors are advised to maintain a defensive allocation, pay attention to the fluctuations in Ethereum's trend and the pace of capital inflow, and appropriately allocate to high-risk assets.

Macroeconomic Situation

1. U.S. Debt and Fiscal Issues

   • The debt scale has reached $36 trillion, with interest expenses of $880 billion
   • Moody's downgrades the US credit rating to Aa1, raising concerns in the market.
   • High debt may weaken long-term confidence in the dollar, benefiting safe-haven assets like Bitcoin.

2. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Direction

   • The market expects that interest rate cuts may begin in the second half of 2025.
   • A 1% rate cut could save the U.S. over $100 billion in interest expenses.
   • Loose monetary policy will increase market liquidity, which is beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.

3. US Dollar Trend

   • The US dollar index weakened in May, but it is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year.
   • The US dollar and Bitcoin are negatively correlated; a weaker dollar benefits the rise of Bitcoin.

Crypto Market Capital Flow

1. ETF Capital Flow
   • From May 31 to June 6, there was a net outflow of $697 million.
   • A month-on-month decrease of $1.368 billion, reflecting a cautious attitude among institutional investors.
   • The positions decreased by 6,710 BTC, but it only accounts for 0.03% of the circulating supply, so the impact is limited.

2. Stablecoin market
   • This week, an additional 1.005 billion has been issued, a month-on-month increase of 82%.
   • Daily average issuance increases by 143 million, showing a mild recovery but below previous highs.
   • The off-exchange premium rates for USDT and USDC have both fallen below 100%, entering the discount range.

3. Over-the-counter market sentiment
   • The stablecoin premium rate has reached a recent low, reflecting insufficient buying interest.
   • The willingness to withdraw funds is stronger than the willingness to deposit funds, and the overall market is leaning towards a conservative wait-and-see approach.

On-chain Data Analysis

1. Behavior of Long-term and Short-term Holders
   • Long-term holder supply reached a six-month high, totaling 14.4 million BTC.
   • The supply of short-term holders has slightly rebounded after hitting a low.
   • Reflects the increased confidence of long-term funds, with a slight rise in short-term trading activity.

2. Distribution of Holding Addresses
   • The proportion of addresses holding 1000-10000 coins has slightly increased.
   • The overall trend is towards the transfer of 100-1000 addresses.
   • A large number of chips have been added in the range of 103,000-105,000 USD, becoming a new concentration area.

Market Outlook

In the short term, the market may maintain a fluctuating rebound trend, but the performance of capital and sentiment is not good. Pay attention to the movements of institutional investors and the performance of small-cap tokens, as they may affect market trends. It is recommended that investors remain cautious, monitor the release of important economic data, and adjust their investment strategies appropriately.