Multi-dimensional Cycle Analysis of the Crypto Assets Market

After recent discussions with industry veterans, a consensus is gradually forming: the traditional "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable to the current Crypto Assets market. If investors cling to old investment strategies and expect multiples of returns from a bull market, they are likely to be left behind by the market.

The current Crypto Assets market presents four simultaneously operating but distinct cyclical patterns, each with its own unique rhythm, strategy, and profit logic:

Bitcoin Super Cycle

Bitcoin has evolved from a purely speculative target to an institutional allocation asset. The scale and allocation logic of funds from Wall Street, listed companies, and ETFs have fundamentally changed the traditional "bull-bear switch" model. Retail investors are exiting the market on a large scale, while institutional funds represented by certain technology companies are actively entering. This fundamental change in the chip structure is reshaping Bitcoin's price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics.

For retail investors, they face the dual pressure of time cost and opportunity cost. Institutional investors can endure a holding period of 3-5 years, waiting for the realization of Bitcoin's long-term value, while retail investors often find it difficult to maintain such patience and financial strength.

In the future, there may be a slow upward trend in Bitcoin that lasts for over ten years. The annualized return may stabilize in the range of 20-30%, but the intraday volatility will significantly decrease, becoming more akin to a steadily growing tech stock. As for the ultimate price ceiling of Bitcoin, it may be difficult to predict accurately from the perspective of retail investors.

MEME Short Cycle

The long-term development trend of MEME projects still exists. During periods when the technological narrative lacks appeal, they can always align with the rhythm of market sentiment, funding, and attention to fill the "boredom vacuum" in the market.

MEME is essentially a speculative vehicle for "instant gratification." It does not require complex technical documentation or verification; a symbol that resonates is sufficient. From animal themes to political topics, from AI concepts to community IP, MEME has evolved into a complete "emotion monetization" industry chain.

However, the MEME market is evolving from a "grassroots carnival" to a "professional competition". The difficulty for ordinary investors to profit in this high-frequency rotation is sharply increasing. With the entry of professional teams, analysts, and large funds, this once "paradise for ordinary people" is becoming highly competitive.

Long Cycle of Technological Innovation

Innovations that truly have technical barriers, such as Layer2 scaling, ZK technology, and AI infrastructure, typically require 2-3 years or even longer development time to see actual results. These types of projects follow the technology maturity curve rather than the emotional cycles of the capital market, and there is a fundamental time difference between the two.

The reason why technical projects are often questioned by the market is mainly due to the overly high valuations given during the conceptual phase, while the actual implementation phase, referred to as the "trough period", often sees undervaluation. This determines that the value release of technical projects exhibits a non-linear leap characteristic.

For patient investors with technical judgment, laying out potential technology projects during a "low point" may be the best strategy for achieving high returns. However, this requires investors to endure long waiting periods and market fluctuations.

Innovation Hotspot Short Cycle

Before the main technological narrative was formed, various small-scale narratives quickly rotated, from tokenization of physical assets to decentralized physical infrastructure, from AI agents to AI infrastructure (including model context protocols and inter-agent communication), with each small hotspot typically having a focus window of only 1-3 months.

The fragmentation of this narrative and the high-frequency rotation reflect the dual constraints of scarce market attention and the pursuit of efficiency by funds. A typical small narrative cycle follows a six-stage model of "concept validation → capital exploration → public opinion amplification → fear of missing out → overvaluation → capital withdrawal."

The competition between narratives is essentially a struggle for limited attention resources. However, there is often a technical relevance and conceptual progression between narratives. For example, the model context protocols and inter-agent communication standards in AI infrastructure are, in fact, a technical underlying reconstruction of AI agent narratives.

If the subsequent narrative can continue the earlier hot topics, form a systematic upgrade linkage, and truly establish a sustainable value cycle in the process, it is very likely to give rise to a large-scale industry boom similar to the DeFi summer.

From the current narrative pattern, the AI infrastructure field is most likely to achieve breakthroughs first. If underlying technologies such as model context protocols, inter-agent communication standards, distributed computing power, inference, and data networks can be organically integrated, there is indeed the potential to create a significant industry trend similar to an "AI summer."

Overall, understanding the essence of these four concurrently running cycle patterns is essential to finding the appropriate strategy within their respective rhythms. Undoubtedly, the singular "four-year cycle" thinking can no longer adapt to the complexity of the current market. Adapting to the new normal of "multi-cycle parallelism" may be the key to truly profiting in this market phase.