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The crypto assets market is at a critical turning point, with analysis showing that the period from late September to mid-October 2025 may serve as the launch window for the altcoin season. This prediction is based on two key indicators: the ongoing decline in Bitcoin's market share and the positive shift in market sentiment.
Currently, Bitcoin's market share has fallen to 56.8%, decreasing by about 0.1 percentage points daily. Historical experience shows that the altcoin season will only truly begin when this ratio drops below 55% and continues to decline to 50%. According to the current trend, this moment may arrive within 18 to 20 trading days.
In terms of market sentiment, the greed index has reached 63, falling into the "greed" range. However, the trading volume over the past 24 hours has dropped significantly by 39%. In this situation, the market depth is relatively shallow, and once sentiment reverses, it may trigger extreme market movements similar to the 60% rise of Solana (SOL) within a week in March 2024.
The macroeconomic environment also provides favorable conditions for the Crypto Assets market. The unemployment rate is at 4.2%, and the inflation rate (CPI) is around 3%, which gives Federal Reserve Chairman Powell a reason to continue adopting an accommodative policy at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September. Historical data shows that under favorable macro conditions, the total market capitalization of alts could grow from $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion within 4-6 weeks.
In summary, investors should consider the period from September 20 to October 15, 2025, as the most likely time for the altcoin season to begin. It may be wise to continue accumulating funds and developing an investment strategy before the Bitcoin market share closes below 54%. However, investors should also keep in mind that the Crypto Assets market is highly volatile and always maintain caution and rationality.