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The current macroeconomic environment is closely related to the correlation of risk assets. The Federal Reserve's stance after the July interest rate meeting remains hawkish, with Powell emphasizing that "it will take time for inflation to return to the 2% target." The market's expectation of a rate cut in September has dropped from 65% at the beginning of the month to 42%, causing the dollar index to rebound to around 103.5, which directly suppresses cryptocurrencies priced in dollars. Historical data shows that when the dollar index breaks the 103 level, the negative correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar index rises to above -0.7 (highly negatively correlated), and this correlation effect is particularly evident in the current market conditions. The NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 1.8%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.2%, with the collective pullback of technology stocks weakening market risk appetite. As a representative of high-risk assets, the correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ 100 Index has recently risen to 0.63, and the downward pressure in the stock market naturally transmits to the cryptocurrency market.
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Recently, there has been a significant 下行 trend, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum have released strong bearish signals in their technical forms and price rhythms. Observing the four-hour chart, the prices of both have been continuously running along the lower Bollinger Band, with the alternating pattern of "大阴配碎阳" repeatedly playing out, combined with the continuous expansion of the Bollinger Band opening, collectively outlining the current weak market structure. Before a clear reversal signal appears in the trend, looking bearish in line with the trend remains the core logic for intraday operations. #6 BTC全民空投限时派送中# #Gate Alpha积分撸40U# #白宫加密报告发布#