In a few years, you may not have to go to work

Original: Noteman

Original title: "In a few years, you may not have to go to work | Noteman AI Summit Compilation"

**Source of content: On June 10, 2023, the "AI New Vision, New Potential for Growth" New Business 1000 People Conference held by Noteman. **

**Note: Not reviewed by the speaker. **

Image credit: Generated by Unbounded AI tools

Note Jun said:

On June 10, Noteman held the first "AI New Vision, Growth New Potential" New Business Conference in Guangzhou.

For this conference, we invited Fu Sheng, chairman and CEO of Cheetah Mobile, chairman of Orion Star, Yan Yanchun, partner of Shengjing Jiacheng Fund and head of AIGC industry incubator, Fang Jun, partner of Kuaizhi Lab, partner of UWEB Education, Tencent Wang Wei, Director of Cloud Intelligence Architect, Yang Yang, founder of Daodao Research Institute and founder of iPIN, Zhao Fan, partner of Shadow Knife RPA, Ke Zhou, founder of Noteman, and many other industry leaders participated.

At the meeting, well-known technology entrepreneurs, AI leaders of major manufacturers, top strategic consulting experts and industry ecological partners, focused on the productivity revolution brought about by AI, underlying technology upgrades, new business knowledge, organizational structure adjustments, and how to deal with many hot topics. Topics, to discuss the major topic of "Integrating AI, Facing the Future".

For example, Fu Sheng believes that ChatGPT will accelerate the elimination of early-stage mental workers; Yang Yang, founder of Daodao Research Institute and founder of iPIN: With a strategy, life is like cheating; Zhao Fan, partner of Shadow Knife RPA: the competition of enterprises in the future It is not the competition of people, but the competition of digital employees; Ke Zhou, founder of Noteman: Every great person with a firm pattern has experienced dark moments.

The sparks of thought collide here, the barriers of cognition are broken here, and the thirst for knowledge bursts out here...

At the meeting of thousands of people, many participants even expressed emotion, "After listening to the sharing of the guests, I did not expect that AI is so close to our lives."

Below, Noteman organizes the exciting content of this meeting for readers:

1. Fu Sheng: ChatGPT will accelerate the elimination of elementary mental workers

Fu Sheng, Chairman and CEO of Cheetah Mobile, Chairman of Orion Star

Semantic understanding is the crown of artificial intelligence technology.

Let's take a look at the principle level. There are two technical paths for semantic understanding: "education" of neural networks and "self-study" of neural networks.

"Education" neural network: According to human understanding of language, "education" neural network grammatical structure and knowledge graph.

This is more in line with our logical understanding of language learning, like humans learning foreign languages, and the effect can be seen from the beginning of investment, so most companies choose this route.

But the problem is that after the system reaches a certain level of language ability (far lower than that of humans), no matter how optimized it is, there are still a lot of answers to questions that are completely irrelevant.

Neural network "self-learning": Let the neural network learn enough texts, and the neural network will automatically discover the rules between the texts. There is no strict theoretical support (and it costs money), almost only OpenAI firmly believes in the second route (and has money), and finally succeeded.

ChatGPT automatically builds a large model with hundreds of billions of parameters by learning from massive texts, establishes a basic logical cognition of the world, and thus generates logic-based reasoning ability.

Therefore, before the emergence of ChatGPT: the dialogue system is more like a parrot, although it can partially match the content, but the system does not fully understand the specific meaning.

After the emergence of ChatGPT: the dialogue system is based on the understanding of semantics. Although they can make mistakes, they are all "serious" nonsense.

For the first time, machines are revolving around people. In the past, people were revolving around machines.

The emergence of ChatGPT has brought about a revolution in interaction and productivity:

Interactive Revolution: The era of using natural language as the interactive interface has finally arrived. The application-centric Internet will transform into a human-centered intelligent Internet, and people will hardly need to learn how to use software.

Productivity Revolution: Chatting is just a demo of ChatGPT's ability. The essence of the big model is logic and reasoning ability, which can be used anywhere that requires mental activity. The era of artificial intelligence creation and innovation is upon us.

Ma Huateng used to think that ChatGPT was a once-in-a-ten-year opportunity, but now he thinks it is a once-in-a-century opportunity. Because ChatGPT has reasoning ability, it is the emergence of general intelligence, that is, when you plug in the electricity, there will be many more employees.

Future industry changes?

1. Platform nuclear war: it is about to start, and a large company without a super large model will no longer be a platform company;

2. Popularization of large models: The wave of frenzy in the open source community will make large models with basic capabilities popular;

3. Efficiency is greatly improved: the organizational form of all companies will change, and efficiency will be greatly improved;

4. Accompaniment + generated content: All walks of life will be deeply affected, and "generated content" will replace "link information";

5. Accelerated elimination: Beginning mental workers will be quickly replaced by AI, and the barriers to technology, experience, and creativity will be greatly weakened.

In the past, there were small changes in five years and major changes in ten years, but now there may be great changes in one or two years.

Once the text can be generated, the generation of pictures and videos will be a matter of course. Imagine that typing a sentence at the beginning of a speech will no longer generate a PPT but a movie...

What should individuals do about this change?

Online: Active, open, learning attitude, become the driver of AI;

Offline: Passive, closed, proving right or wrong, gradually replaced by AI.

What should entrepreneurs do?

1. Study hard: study ChatGPT and related AIGC products carefully, and those who do not learn will inevitably become coachmen;

2. Proficiency in driving: Proficiency in controlling AI products and becoming a magician in the new era;

3. Maintain enthusiasm: take advantage of the advantages of the human race, maintain enthusiasm, curiosity and imagination, brain hole is still the advantage at present;

4. Don't lie down: In the era of the productivity revolution, sleeping is a waste of time.

2. Yan Yanchun: AIGC will bring 3 new structural dividends

Yan Yanchun, Partner of Shengjing Jiacheng Fund and Director of AIGC Industry Incubator

The emergence of ChatGPT has opened up a super track of 100 trillion US dollars. And AIGC generative artificial intelligence will reinstall the whole world, resulting in three new structural dividends:

1. New demographic dividend, from 8 billion humans to 210 billion new humans

In the future, everyone will have several avatars, and ChatGPT will empower 8 billion human beings to obtain three types of life: avatar avatar + AI digital humanization + humanoid robot.

For example, Karin has 2 million followers on the social platform of Snapchat, and there is no way to respond to each follower one-on-one, which makes her feel terrible. So, she relied on ChatGPT-4.0 to generate her own digital clone "Karin AI", and provided chat services at a price of one dollar per minute.

Every life may be the living embodiment of every human being, or every brand.

It is not just a piece of released code, it was born in the metaverse, grew up in the metaverse, is another life that roams in the metaverse, and is an aborigine of the metaverse.

2. Accelerate Metaverse Bonus

① The consumption metaverse will reconstruct the people and goods yard

Metaverse will change people's lives and ways, and will also change the way brands connect emotionally with consumers.

② Industrial Metaverse

Accelerate the transformation of factories from smart manufacturing to black light factories, and realize 3D printing + intelligent digital factories.

3. Accelerating the Industrial Internet Dividend

For example, China's cross-border e-commerce giant SheIn (Xiyin).

In 2022, SheIn's GMV will exceed 30 billion U.S. dollars, with revenue of 22.7 billion U.S. dollars, net profit of 700 million U.S. dollars, and the latest valuation of 70 billion U.S. dollars.

In 7 years, it has grown from a cross-border wedding dress to the world's largest fast fashion industry community. Behind it is to achieve 2 points:

First, random personality is required.

Second, quickly respond to the supply chain. It only takes 5 days from receiving SheIn's order, fabrics to delivery of garments to SheIn's warehouse - that is, 1 day for fabric production, 3 days for cutting, sewing and finishing, and 1 day for secondary process (embroidery and printing).

All in all, all industries are worth doing again, and all apps are worth rewriting.

3. Fang Jun: Make good use of AI, knowledge is at your fingertips

Fang Jun, Partner of Kuaizhi Lab, Partner of UWEB Education

Judging from the last three relatively large waves we have experienced. First, there is the wave of informatization. Then came the wave of networking.

Now, we have come to the third wave, the wave of intelligence.

Then look at our environment. Once upon a time, computing was at your fingertips. In previous years, information was at your fingertips.

By the beginning of the year, knowledge is at your fingertips. For example, professional knowledge is at your fingertips, writing skills are at your fingertips, and image production is at your fingertips...

The real technology trend has come. ChatGPT broke through 1 million users in just 5 days and reached 100 million users in two months. The speed exceeds all previous applications.

The turning point is that from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, AI will become a product available to the public.

So, how to use it?

By understanding the basic principles, we can know how to use it and find the entry point.

Generative AI includes image models and language models. Both models include model, development, application.

The essence of generative AI is to generate text and graphs. A video is a dynamic picture plus sound. PPT is a combination of pictures and text. and so on.

Using the analogy of a person's growth, how does the language model "grow up"?

First, pre-training, learn a lot of knowledge (probability).

Next, the text is completed and the next word is predicted.

Then, the cue, invokes the knowledge through the cue.

Finally, answer questions or execute commands.

In the past, I gave you instructions and you did them. Now, I will give you instructions, and you will know what to do next.

So, how to use GPT well? The key is to master the skills of asking it questions. First, clarify the problem. Second, give samples and split tasks.

The key to using "generative AI" is the prompt (asking GPT). Questions are divided into 3 levels.

There are 3 elements to ask GPT questions: detailed background information, specific problem description, and clear answer requirements.

Advanced questioning skills: prompts with fewer samples, adjusted prompts to repeat questions, dismantling tasks and asking questions step by step.

Advanced questioning skills: plug-in knowledge base, joint use with other tools, multiple rounds of interaction to complete complex tasks.

What are its pros and cons?

What do you use GPT for? - Currently: fast text processing.

What is it good at? What are you not good at? ——Not good at information.

What big hole does it have? — hallucinations (nonsense).

The key to use - Discernment (Is it a good answer).

In the next world, knowledge is everywhere and at your fingertips. With good use of AI, everyone can enter.

4. AI Roundtable Forum (Part 1): When new opportunities come, every enterprise has its own way of transformation

Zhan Man, founder of private equity fund: AI brings opportunities and challenges in a new era. How to deal with changes? Can you talk about your own ideas and some thoughts on enterprise transformation?

Tan Xingxing, founder of Fenwei Technology: AI is evolving very fast, how can companies build their own moats? Where is the core business? Should we build our own moat or follow the changes in small steps? These are issues that companies need to consider clearly.

Yang Jiongwei, Founder and CEO of Weiling Technology: Today's computing power can help every ordinary person.

Fengnian, Founder of Dianjinshou and Chairman of Broadcasting Media Group: First, every enterprise is not just an e-commerce enterprise, but must build its own AI productivity center. Smooth transition of the team, don't lay off everyone at once.

Second, AI is the first wave of impact on the content industry, mainly from the three perspectives of text, pictures, and video "live broadcast". Short video live broadcast organizations cannot escape this wave at all. Your current experience is not good. , It’s purely because you didn’t find the right posture, the right software, and the right direction. The labor cost model of photographers, short video directors, and anchors with goods will be subverted.

Third, small and medium-sized enterprises should not touch big models. They can try small model innovations or large-scale applications in their own industries. The application of certain capabilities can also be realized. The development and application of "vertical industry brains" is China's participation in the great changes in AI. key.

Fourth, reserve and bundle vertical industry IP and opinion leaders in advance, sign contracts in advance or associate them with AI for a long time. According to the actual IP consulting business, it is a small-cost big business that can be magnified countless times by AI.

Zhang Wenlong, co-founder of Noteman: Every time a new opportunity comes, every company will have its own way of change.

First, team consensus is the most important.

Second, execution is very important, and the right method must be used.

Third, everyone has to find their place.

Fang Jun, Partner of Kuaizhi Lab and UWEB Education Partner: In response to the changes brought about by AI, we need to be careful not to be too aggressive.

Yan Yanchun, partner of Shengjing Jiacheng Fund and head of AIGC Industrial Incubator: Facing the new era of AI, enterprises must do two things: 1. Make good use of data; 2. Find the right people.

Zhan Man, founder of private equity fund: Thank you teachers for their wonderful sharing, and I also express my own views. It can be seen that the current consensus on the power of technology has promoted the prosperity of Nvidia and Tesla in the capital market.

And every company we live in under the wave of the times, everyone is also going through the transformation period of their own development, and of course there will be periods of pain, but instead of worrying about the present, it is better to embrace changes and run hard, and you will always find the one that suits you. way.

5. Wang Wei: Digital people are by your side

Wang Wei, Director of Tencent Cloud Intelligent Architect

Digital humans refer to virtual characters that exist in the digital space in digital form and have the appearance, behavior and characteristics of anthropomorphic or real people, also known as avatars, digital virtual humans, virtual digital humans, etc.

The core technologies of digital humans mainly include computer graphics, motion capture, image rendering, AI, etc. Digital people can create a more perfect personality and bring positive value to the brand.

1. Three dimensions of digital human classification

According to the dimensions of character graphics resources, digital humans can be divided into two categories: 2D and 3D, and can be divided into 2D real people, 2D cartoons, 3D cartoons, 3D stylized, 3D realistic, 3D super realistic, 3D high-fidelity, etc. Various.

According to the dimension of driving, it can be divided into two types: human driving and AI driving.

According to business and functional dimensions, it can be divided into three types: content/IP type, functional service type, and virtual avatar.

2. Three characteristics of digital humans

Sapiens have a good-looking skin on the outside and an interesting soul on the inside.

It has three characteristics:

The appearance of a person has character characteristics such as a person's appearance, gender, and personality.

Human behavior, with the ability of language, facial expressions and body movements.

The human mind has the ability to recognize the external environment and communicate and interact with people.

6. Yang Yang: With a strategy, life is like hanging

Yang Yang, Founder of Daodao Research Institute, Founder of iPIN

We always feel that life is difficult, but why do many people like to play games?

Because there are strategies for playing games, you will have fun playing games, but there are always accidents in life, it is difficult to get the strategies, and many places are unpredictable.

Our human use of information is divided into four steps, perception, cognition, analysis, and decision-making.

Cognition is divided into outward cognition and inward cognition.

External cognition, such as writing novels, taking exams, developing games, etc.

Inward cognition is thinking, psychology, and thinking. Such as treating depression, improving focus, habit building, managing teams, etc.

This wave of AI actually breaks through outward cognition and realizes the understanding of human common sense and language. Inwardly aware AI cannot be resolved.

Take university selection of majors as an example, you can't rely on AI.

What kind of help does each university major have for human growth? This aspect is difficult for AI to understand.

For example, the philosophy major of Jilin University, after graduation, the most is to do HR.

Another example is the social and ethnic major of South Central University for Nationalities. After graduation, most of them go to Internet companies to work as product managers.

Why is there such a phenomenon? This is the cognitive challenge.

In 2019, Yu Minhong told me that he felt that there was something wrong with China's education model. For example, the effective rate of remedial lessons is 24%, and the other 76% have no progress.

He believes that education should be like medical care, first diagnose the problem, and then give a targeted solution.

At present, the level of technology in the education industry is extremely low, and the judgment of people is still in the "witch doctor" era, so it is necessary to redo education with technology.

With AI precision medicine, we will redo cognitive growth and customize AI-targeted growth plans for everyone. There are 3 purposes:

First, accurately recognize the unique characteristics of each person.

Second, with the help of AI diagnosis, accurately locate the problem of TA, and customize the targeted improvement plan.

Third, awakening TA's ability to grow up is more important than becoming an excellent test machine.

The specific steps are comprehensive detection, target diagnosis, targeted prescription, and targeted supervision.

As long as everyone can live out their own wonderful life, we don't need to register, but now we can only register.

With the help of AI, we can design our own life strategies. When you have a life strategy, your whole life will be on the hook.

For example, choose a career. A person's golden career direction includes 5 points: C, suitable personality; A, good talent; M, satisfactory income; I, liking; Q, competence (study value = education + skills).

If all 5 conditions are met, you will be happy. If none of the conditions are met, quickly regenerate and choose again.

Therefore, each of us needs to customize the AIGC growth strategy.

7. Zhao Fan, partner of Shadow Knife RPA: The competition of future enterprises is not the competition of people, but the competition of digital employees

Zhao Fan, Partner of Shadow Knife RPA

RPA has set off a trend in many enterprises in the past, but now it has been overshadowed by ChatGPT.

As a software robot, RPA can greatly release manpower, and can replace white-collar workers to complete logical and repetitive tasks. For example, it helps automatic financial reconciliation, automatic collection for marketing, batch processing of orders for customer service, and automatic entry and exit process for HR.

We know that the competition among enterprises is essentially a competition of efficiency, and the end is the penetration rate of the total time efficiency of enterprise employees. The source begins with liberating everyone's hands, and each round of technical iteration will greatly improve efficiency.

Relying on clear business processes, RPA is the digital employee of the enterprise. Therefore, the competition of future enterprises is no longer a competition of people, but a competition of digital employees.

What can "RPA+big model" achieve?

It will maximize the release of productivity. The big model is the head, and the RPA is the body and limbs.

For large models, there are still significant limitations:

1.ChatGPT: Have a world view, have the ability of logical reasoning, but the understanding is still limited;

2. GPT4.0: supports multi-modality and can understand images, but it is mainly used in text and painting content, and needs to enhance the production and landing capabilities of many formats;

3. Large model + shadow knife RPA: able to understand and deduce and use tools, but there are requirements for the scope of what can be done.

The combination of RPA + large model can expand the capability boundary of RPA:

For example, big models are good at thinking, and have the ability to identify intentions, logical reasoning, and abstract summarization; while RPA is good at using tools and connections, and can handle regular and repetitive work.

8. AI Roundtable Forum (Part 2): Always be the one who uses AI tools

Kotler China Partner Wang Sai (host): One day in the sky, one year on the ground. The launch of ChatGPT in the past six months may have caused intergenerational changes. Imagine what will happen to your business and industry in 500 days?

Jia Dayu, founder of Zhengyang Public Relations: First of all, people's mentality will undergo a huge change.

For example, when we write press releases for clients, one is written by AI and one by humans, but the client chooses to write by AI. It shows that a lot of mental work such as copywriting and designers will be replaced.

If the production method changes, the quotation system will change. Customers will not pay you a high price for products that are completed quickly with ChatGPT.

As the quotation system changes, the products will also change. What is the future selling to customers? How to create higher value for customers?

These are all questions to think about. So, I think after 500 days, there will be earth-shaking changes.

Lu You, CEO of Zhiban Quanyu Technology: From now on, automation will become more and more convenient.

First, there are pain points in doing private domain, which requires many employees to operate. We are currently working on 10,000 groups, and now we don’t need people to do it with GPT.

Second, use copywriting to post to Moments and communities. This requires AI trainers to train AI.

Third, the skill barrier is not so high. For example, those who sell nutrition products need nutritionists.

Hu Lei, CEO of One Brand Vision: AI is already an important part of our project process. AI is a tool that really helps us reduce costs and increase efficiency. Our brand-based sorting cannot be replaced by AI. But AI can help us find materials for visual expression and unlock inspiration.

Always be the one using AI tools, not the one being replaced.

Huang Zhenyu, chairman of Xiaohuxian Wine Group: After the big language model is established, the boundary between man and machine disappears. In the future, each of us can train our own virtual person to hold meetings and handle work instead of ourselves.

Kotler China partner Wang Sai (host): Cost reduction and efficiency increase are small strategies. On top of this, will there be major changes, such as model changes?

Jia Dayu, founder of Zhengyang Public Relations: Any industry, if you don't pay attention to it, may be replaced. In the future, manpower will be greatly liberated, and experts with experience and aura at the head will be more valuable; while mental workers in the middle need to quickly adapt to the new living environment in order to survive; Because they are better at working with large models.

Lu You, CEO of Zhiban Quanyu Technology: For the clothing industry, it is now possible to directly generate AI human models without models.

Hu Lei, CEO of One Brand Vision: For the creative industry, learning how to use AI is the most important thing. There will definitely be changes in terms of business models and production models.

Huang Zhenyu, Chairman of Xiaomuxian Wine Group: The core of AI is to free our hands, so that we have time to think about future things, such as new business models, new values, and so on. It will even change the organizational structure, because in the past it was a pyramidal business structure, and the use of ChatGPT in the future may turn the organization into a flat structure.

Zhang Wenlong, co-founder of Noteman: Factors that change productivity will lead to changes in social division of labor. A groom in the past, a taxi driver in the future. At the same time, the social division of labor has changed, the infrastructure will also change, and the needs of customers will also change. Users will choose more efficient and more suitable products and service forms. This will force the business model of the current enterprise to change.

9. Ke Zhou: Transforming oneself is the only way out in the future

Ke Zhou, Founder of Noteman

No matter in which era, there are people who ride the waves.

In the wave of the AI era, a group of firm practitioners of the great pattern concept have already stood at the forefront. For example, Li Zhifei and Going out to ask, Sam Altman and OpenAI, Huang Renxun and NVIDIA.

Every person with a great pattern has experienced dark moments.

Only by believing in the power of belief and having fun while suffering can we be resolute; only by actively embracing changes and evolving proactively can we keep pace with the times; only by constantly updating our cognition and continuous learning can we break out of the tight encirclement.

Transforming oneself is the only way out for a person's future.

From the staunch practitioners of the great pattern, we can see that the most important ability is the way you look at the world. At the same time, if you want to innovate, you have to bear risks and consequences, which is normal.

Innovation emerges from step-by-step exploration, and there is nothing 100% certain in this world.

AI brings us a once-in-a-century opportunity. Companies that respond quickly will use AI technology to enhance their competitiveness, while companies that cannot make good use of AI will face decline.

AI transforms business. For example, in April, the Operations and Purchasing Department of BlueFocus East China Headquarters announced that it would completely stop outsourcing expenses related to creative design, program writing, copywriting, and short-term employees indefinitely.

AI transforms marketing. For example, Coca-Cola released an AI advertising video. There are also customer demand mining, digital advertising creation and delivery, sales forecasting and so on. Artificial intelligence in marketing will definitely pay off.

AI changes individuals. The method of information integration, the level of personal skills, and the way of cognition have all changed.

Today's time is just like when computers first came out, and just like when smartphones first came out, this is the best time. We are all at the same starting line in AI.

Every industry and enterprise will be revolutionized and reborn, so which trends must be embraced?

First, intelligent customer service.

Divided into three types: artificial intelligence, intelligent agent and intelligent analysis.

Second, digital assistants.

There will be five levels of AI assistants: notification assistants, FAQ assistants, contextual assistants, personalized assistants, and AI assistants in automated organizations.

Here, people start to take the lead, and people are the organizers, assigning tasks, and gradually let the assistants lead, organize and assign tasks.

Third, ecological chain enterprises.

We are standing at the beginning of a wave that will last for decades. In the face of artificial intelligence, human beings must learn to admit their own shortcomings, and admit that they are only a part of evolution, not the end.

Run, don't slow down, as Huang Renxun said: "Whether it is running for food or not being treated as food by others, you often cannot know which situation you are in, but no matter what, Just keep running."

*The article is the author's independent opinion and does not represent the position of Noteman.