Crypto Assets Market Dynamics: Follow the Impact of Non-Farm Employment Data on Policy Direction

Market Overview

On Thursday, the U.S. President signed an executive order imposing "reciprocal" tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from multiple countries. The White House stated that this move aims to protect U.S. manufacturing and address trade imbalances.

In June, the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year, hitting a five-month high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. However, consumer spending growth has slowed, real disposable income has remained flat, and the household savings rate stands at 4.5%. Although monetary policy remained unchanged this week, two board members have unusually voted in favor of a rate cut. The Federal Reserve Chairman emphasized that the labor market is the primary determining factor for current monetary policy. The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could be key in determining the direction of policy. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in September is close to 50%.

Hong Kong will implement the "Stablecoin Regulation" in August, marking the official entry of stablecoin technology into the regulatory track. A clear framework and credibility are attracting numerous companies to apply for licenses, indicating that the relevant technology will shift from the conceptual stage to large-scale commercial deployment.

Crypto Assets Market

Bitcoin briefly fell below $115,000 this morning but has since rebounded above $115,500. Analysts point out that if the support at $114,000 is lost, the market may weaken. $115,883 is an important liquidation level. If resistance at $118,000 is broken, it may pave the way for a new historical high. On the fundamentals, institutional buyers have significantly increased over the past six weeks, with a buy-sell ratio of 100:1, spot ETFs have resumed net inflows, and positive policy news has also boosted market sentiment.

Ethereum briefly dropped to around $3600 this morning. Analysts believe that although it continues to face resistance at the $4000 level, its rebound speed has surpassed that of Bitcoin. However, cautious sentiment remains in the market, mainly due to its ecological TVL and DEX trading volume share declining relative to competitors. If enterprises continue to increase their Ethereum reserves, the price may be expected to challenge $5000.

Regulatory Dynamics

A regulatory agency announced the launch of a "crypto project" at the full committee level, aimed at making the United States a global Crypto Assets center by revising securities rules. The plan includes establishing token classification standards, updating custody rules, streamlining trading licenses, creating regulatory pathways for DeFi and tokenized assets, and introducing an "innovation exemption" mechanism.

Market Data

• Bitcoin: $115,619 (Year-to-date +23.51%), Daily trading volume $52.244 billion
• Ethereum: $3,682.83 (Year-to-date +11.05%), Daily trading volume $34.676 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 160,329 people were liquidated, total amount 630 million USD

Today's Follow

• Hong Kong has begun implementing the Stablecoin Ordinance
• Indonesia raises the tax rate on Crypto Assets trading
• The unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for the US in July have been released.

The market will closely follow the potential impact of these events on the price trends of Crypto Assets.