Litecoin ( LTC ) rises against the trend by over 10%! Six consecutive days of gains break through the $116 key resistance, with ETF expectations + on-chain trading surge igniting the market | LTC price prediction

As most Crypto Assets fall, Litecoin ( LTC ) has defied the trend, achieving a six consecutive days of gains, with a big pump of over 10% in 24 hours, currently priced at $122.08. Last Sunday, the volume **surged to more than double the 14-day average, helping the price strongly break through the $116 key resistance level. The Litecoin Foundation disclosed that on-chain transaction volume will account for 12% of its total historical transaction volume by 2025, coupled with the rising expectations for the approval of Spot ETFs, jointly driving this independent market trend. However, from a technical perspective, the RSI has entered the Overbought zone, and the strong resistance area around $121-$122 may trigger a short-term pullback, with opportunities to buy low at the $115 support level.

Counter-trend rise: On-chain activity surge draws attention

• Independent Market: LTC has continued to rise over the past 6 days, significantly outperforming the market. On Sunday, the single-day trading volume broke through twice the 14-day average , indicating strong capital involvement.
• On-chain activity: The Litecoin Foundation's statement on August 2 revealed key data—12% of its lifetime transaction total was processed in 2025. This unusual activity has sparked market speculation about its actual use (currently, LTC is primarily positioned as a cheaper and faster payment network than BTC).
• Ecological Shortcomings: DeFi Llama data shows that its on-chain Total Value Locked ( TVL ) is only 3 million dollars, indicating that the DeFi ecosystem is nearly empty, highlighting the disconnection between current volume and actual application.

Rising momentum: ETF expectations and regulatory positioning become the core driving forces.

In the absence of a significant ecological breakthrough, two main factors are driving this round of rise:

1. Spot ETF expectations heat up:
   • The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has explicitly classified LTC as a commodity in the lawsuit against a certain CEX, laying the regulatory foundation for ETF approval.
   • Grayscale (, CoinShares, and Canary Capital ) have submitted LTC Spot ETF applications.
   • The change of the US administration and leadership changes in the SEC strengthen the market's expectations for crypto-friendly policies.
2. Short Squeeze(: Continuous rise against the trend may force shorts to close their positions, further amplifying the rise.

) Technical Outlook: $122 strong resistance ahead, Overbought signal warns of pullback risk.

• Key Resistance Zone: $121-$122 area constitutes strong resistance, historically touched multiple times and then quickly retreated. This round of rise has been up for 10 days out of 12, approaching this sensitive area.
• Pullback Path Analysis:
  • If $121-$122 encounters resistance, it may pull back to the $115 support level (recently broken resistance turning into support).
  • This position may attract waiting funds to enter the market, forming a new rising support point.
• Upside Target: If the support at $115 holds, a rebound is expected to challenge $130 (approximately 13% rise from the current price).
• Indicator Alert: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken above 70 into the overbought range, indicating strong bullish momentum, but it has increased the probability of a short-term technical pullback.

On-chain data insights: The source of abnormal trading volume remains a mystery.

• Core contradiction: Although on-chain trading volume has surged, LTC lacks mature DeFi applications and stablecoin scenarios, and its role as a payment tool faces fierce competition from stablecoins such as USDT and USDC.
• Potential Explanation: Some analysts speculate that the abnormal trading may originate from:
  • Integration of internal wallets or operations by market makers.
  • Utilizing the low fee characteristics of LTC for cross-chain bridging or off-chain settlement actions.
  • Non-economic transfers (volume brushing) caused by the influx of short-term speculative funds.

Conclusion: Litecoin has emerged with an independent market trend driven by expectations of a Spot ETF and a surge in on-chain volume. The technical breakthrough at $116 releases positive signals. However, the historical strong resistance zone at $121-$122 and the RSI being Overbought suggest an increased risk of a short-term pullback, and investors should be cautious about chasing highs. If the price retraces to stabilize at the support level of $115, it can be seen as a buy low opportunity, targeting $130. In the long term, LTC needs to address the fundamental issues of weak practical application scenarios and slow ecological development to support the valuation restructuring under ETF expectations. The current market essence is still dominated by short-term event-driven and capital games.