Crypto Market Q3 Macro Research Report: Alt season signals have emerged, institutions are adopting to drive selective bull run outbreak

1. The macro turning point has arrived: Regulatory warming and policy support resonance

As the third quarter of 2025 begins, the macro landscape has quietly changed. The policy environment that once pushed digital assets to the margins is now transforming into a structural driving force. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its two-year interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to a stimulus track, and the accelerated construction of a "accommodative framework" for global encryption regulation, the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

First, from the perspective of monetary policy, the macro liquidity environment in the United States is entering a critical turning window. Although the Federal Reserve still emphasizes "data dependency" at the official level, the market has already reached a consensus on interest rate cuts within 2025. The divergence between the lagging dot plot and the forward-looking expectations of the futures market is increasingly widening. The government's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve further politicizes monetary policy tools, indicating that U.S. real interest rates will gradually decline from high levels between the second half of 2025 and 2026. This expectation difference opens an upward channel for risk assets, especially digital assets. More importantly, with Powell being marginalized in political games, and the emergence of a "more compliant Federal Reserve Chair" on the horizon, easing is not only an expectation but may also become a policy reality.

At the same time, the fiscal side is also making efforts in tandem. Fiscal expansion represented by the "American Rescue Plan" is bringing an unprecedented capital release effect. The government is pouring significant funds into areas such as manufacturing repatriation, AI infrastructure, and energy independence, effectively creating a "capital torrent channel" that spans traditional industries and emerging technology sectors. This not only reshapes the structure of the dollar's internal circulation but also indirectly strengthens the marginal demand for digital asset types—especially in the context of capital seeking high-risk premiums. Concurrently, the U.S. Treasury has also adopted a more aggressive approach to its national debt issuance strategy, sending signals of "not fearing debt expansion," making "printing money for growth" once again a consensus on Wall Street.

The fundamental shift in policy signals is more reflected in the changes in the regulatory structure. As we enter 2025, the SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change. The official approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the first time that U.S. regulators have recognized that income-generating digital assets can enter the traditional financial system; meanwhile, the promotion of the Solana ETF has even given Solana, which was once regarded as a "high-beta speculative chain," a historical opportunity to be institutionalized. More importantly, the SEC has begun to develop a unified standard for simplifying the approval of token ETFs, aiming to build a replicable and scalable compliant financial product channel. This represents a fundamental shift in regulatory logic from a "firewall" to a "pipeline project," with crypto assets being included in financial infrastructure planning for the first time.

This shift in regulatory thinking is not unique to the United States. The compliance race in the Asian region is heating up, especially in financial hubs like Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE, all competing for the compliance dividends of stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 innovation projects. Circle has applied for a license in the US, Tether is also positioning a Hong Kong dollar-pegged coin in Hong Kong, and Chinese giants like JD.com and Ant Group are applying for stablecoin-related qualifications, indicating that the trend of integration between sovereign capital and internet giants has begun. This means that in the future, stablecoins will no longer just be trading tools but will become part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies, driven by a systemic demand for on-chain liquidity, security, and infrastructure assets.

In addition, there are signs of a recovery in risk appetite in traditional financial markets. The S&P 500 reached a new historical high in June, with tech stocks and emerging assets rebounding in sync. The IPO market is warming up, and the user activity on certain platforms is increasing, all sending a signal: risk capital is flowing back in, and this round of inflow is no longer solely focused on AI and biotechnology, but is beginning to re-evaluate blockchain, encryption finance, and on-chain structural yield assets. This change in capital behavior is more honest than narratives and more forward-looking than policies.

As monetary policy enters an easing phase, fiscal policy undergoes a comprehensive loosening, regulatory structures shift to a model of "regulation equating to support," and overall risk appetite improves, the overall environment for crypto assets has long since escaped the predicament of late 2022. Under this dual drive of policy and market, it is not difficult to arrive at a judgment: the brewing of a new bull run is not driven by sentiment, but rather a process of value reassessment driven by institutional factors. It is not that Bitcoin is about to take off, but rather that global capital markets are beginning to "pay a premium for certain assets" again; the spring of the crypto market is returning in a more moderate yet more powerful manner.

2. Structural turnover: Enterprises and institutions are leading the next bull run.

The most noteworthy structural change in the current crypto market is no longer the dramatic price fluctuations, but rather the deep logic of chips quietly shifting from retail and short-term funds into the hands of long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and restructuring, the participant structure of the crypto market is undergoing a historic "reshuffle": users centered around speculation are gradually being marginalized, while institutions and enterprises aiming for allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The performance of Bitcoin has already said it all. Despite the calm price movement, its circulating chips are accelerating the "lock-up" process. According to data tracking from several institutions, the total amount of Bitcoin purchased by listed companies in the past three quarters has surpassed the net buying scale of ETFs during the same period. Certain tech companies, supply chain enterprises, and even some traditional energy and software companies are viewing Bitcoin as a "strategic cash alternative" rather than a short-term asset allocation tool. Behind this behavioral pattern is a deep understanding of the expectations of global currency devaluation, as well as a proactive response to the incentive structures of products like ETFs. Compared to ETFs, companies directly purchasing spot Bitcoin have more flexibility and voting rights, and are less easily swayed by market sentiment, possessing greater holding resilience.

At the same time, financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for the accelerated influx of institutional funds. The approval of Ethereum staking ETFs not only expands the boundaries of compliant products but also signifies that institutions are starting to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The anticipated approval of Solana spot ETFs further opens up imaginative possibilities; once the staking yield mechanism is packaged and absorbed by ETFs, it will fundamentally change traditional asset managers' perception of crypto assets as "yieldless and purely volatile," and will also prompt institutions to shift from risk hedging to yield allocation. In addition, some large crypto funds are applying to convert into ETF forms, marking the breaking down of the "barriers" between traditional fund management mechanisms and blockchain asset management mechanisms.

More importantly, companies are directly participating in the on-chain financial market, breaking the traditional isolation structure between "over-the-counter investment" and the on-chain world. One company directly increased its stake in ETH through a private placement of 20 million USD, while another development company spent a whopping 100 million USD on the acquisition of Solana ecosystem projects and platform equity buybacks, signifying that enterprises are actively involved in building a new generation of crypto financial ecosystems. This is no longer the logic of venture capital participating in startup projects, but rather a capital injection characterized by "industrial mergers and acquisitions" and "strategic layout," aimed at securing core asset rights and profit distribution rights of new financial infrastructure. The market effects brought about by this behavior are long-tailed, not only stabilizing market sentiment but also enhancing the valuation anchoring ability of underlying protocols.

In the field of derivatives and on-chain liquidity, traditional finance is also actively positioning itself. The number of open contracts for Solana futures on a certain platform has reached a historical high of 1.75 million, and the monthly trading volume of XRP futures has also surpassed $500 million for the first time, indicating that traditional trading institutions have included crypto assets in their strategic models. The driving forces behind this are the continuous influx of hedge funds, structured product providers, and multi-strategy CTA funds—these players do not pursue short-term profits but rather engage in volatility arbitrage, capital structure games, and quantitative factor model operations. The fundamental enhancement they bring to the market will be a "liquidity density" and "market depth".

From the perspective of structural turnover, the significant decline in the activity of retail investors and short-term players further reinforces the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decrease, early whale wallet activity has declined, and on-chain search and wallet interaction data are stabilizing, indicating that the market is in a "turnover sedimentation period." Although the price performance during this phase is relatively flat, historical experience shows that it is precisely these periods of silence that often give birth to the biggest market starting points. In other words, the chips are no longer in the hands of retail investors, and institutions are quietly "building their positions."

It is also worth noting that the "productization capabilities" of financial institutions are rapidly being implemented. From some large financial institutions to emerging retail financial platforms, they are all expanding their capabilities in trading, staking, lending, and payment of encryption assets. This not only enables encryption assets to truly achieve "usability within the fiat currency system", but also provides them with richer financial attributes. In the future, BTC and ETH may no longer be just "volatile digital assets", but will become "configurable asset classes" ------ complete financial ecosystems with derivative markets, payment scenarios, yield structures, and credit ratings.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is not a simple rotation of positions, but a deep unfolding of the "financialization" of crypto assets, representing a complete reshaping of value discovery logic. The dominant players in the market are no longer the "quick money crowd" driven by emotions and trends, but institutions and enterprises with medium to long-term strategic planning, clear allocation logic, and stable funding structures. A truly institutionalized and structured bull run is quietly brewing; it will not be ostentatious or fervent, but it will be more solid, more lasting, and more thorough.

3. The New Era of Alt Season: From General Increase to "Selective Bull Run"

When people mention "alt season", what often comes to mind is the all-encompassing, frenzied market boom of 2021. However, by 2025, the evolutionary trajectory of the market has quietly changed, and the logic of "altcoin rise = everyone takes off" no longer holds. The current "alt season" is entering a brand new phase: the broad market surge is gone, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the crypto market gradually maturing and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

From a structural signal perspective, the chips of mainstream altcoin assets have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair has welcomed a strong rebound for the first time after several weeks of decline, with whale addresses accumulating millions of ETH in a very short time, and large on-chain transactions occurring frequently, indicating that major funds have begun to reprice Ethereum and other first-tier assets. Meanwhile, retail sentiment remains low, with no significant recovery in search index and wallet creation volume, but this instead creates an ideal "low-interference" environment for the next round of market: no overheated sentiment, no retail explosion, making it easier for institutional rhythms to dominate the market. Historically, it is often during such market moments of "seeming rises and falls, seeming stability and instability" that the biggest trend opportunities are nurtured.

However, unlike previous years, this time the alt season will not be "taking off together," but rather "each flying on its own." The ETF applications have become the anchor point for the new round of thematic structure. In particular, the spot ETF for Solana is already seen as the next "market consensus event." From the launch of the Ethereum staking ETF to whether the staking yields on the Solana chain will be included in the ETF dividend structure, investors have already begun to lay out around staking assets, and the price performance of governance tokens such as JTO and MNDE has also started.