2025 Bull Run Reflexivity Thinking:

①Since there was a season of altcoins in the historical Q4 (2017), the current bull run in Q4 is likely to experience fluctuations and then turn bearish.
② Historically, there has been no altcoin season in Q3, and there is no memory of this in human thinking, so the probability of an altcoin season in this Q3 is the highest.
Things to note:
People were trapped by the car at night, wishfully carving the boat in the fourth quarter of 2017, escaping the top of the altcoin season too late, and finally pinning their hopes on next year's interest rate cuts.
But the power of mean reversion is greater than anything.
The emotional aspect ranks second, only allowing for the judgment of a mid-term peak. For example, at the end of 2024, the emotional greed index is 95°, indicating a mid-term peak, but not the peak of a four-year cycle.
As for the news aspect, it's at the bottom of the list. There are too many news factors during a bull run; if there isn't this piece of news, there will be that piece of news, and expectations can also be made in advance.
The first interest rate cut had some effect, the second rebound, and the third decline.
Mean reversion (fundamentals) > sentiment > news (positive). #btc # ETH