Orange Evening Interpretation 7.22

Altcoins have been falling for too long; as soon as Ethereum makes a slight pullback, altcoins immediately show weakness. In fact, Ethereum has risen from around 2400 during this wave, and on the daily chart, it has been climbing almost every day for over half a month. Until yesterday, it had reached a peak of 3860, which is very close to the 4000 resistance level, so it's quite normal to encounter resistance, and there is also a demand for capital turnover.

The cost consumption of the main force continuously pushing up the market has been too large, so today’s pullback does not actually affect Ethereum's long-term upward trend. However, the performance of altcoins is still quite disappointing, as there is hardly anyone willing to go against the trend and take risks. This indicates that the market's sentiment for altcoins is still not strong enough. Moreover, this wave is only a pullback for Ethereum; Bitcoin's trend remains stable. In fact, Solana has even taken the lead, rising from 195 to 204 against the trend, and has also boosted its own ecosystem projects, with $jup, $ray, and $jto performing quite well. However, overall, altcoins are still too weak, which once again confirms the conclusion that only ETH can save altcoins.

The market structure is now very clear, with Bitcoin being in a league of its own, possessing attributes that cater to both the U.S. stock market and gold, along with strong policy support. Whether it's ETFs, national strategic reserves, or crypto treasury, none of these can compare to any asset class in history, and the potential for future growth is limitless, possibly surpassing the entire fiat currency system. The second tier is ETH, which, compared to Bitcoin, is more like a combination of crypto and tech stocks. It also has the three elements of ETFs, reserves, and treasury, with policy support only second to Bitcoin, as evidenced by the holding ratio of the Trump family project WLFI. Moreover, the recently passed genius stablecoin bill has put ETH back in the spotlight, as Ethereum is the foundation for strongly correlated sectors like DEFI\RWA\STABLECOIN. In the coming years, the U.S. will see hundreds of billions of dollars in stablecoins on-chain, and Ethereum is undoubtedly the largest infrastructure provider, having immense advantages over other public chains, which could be likened to the difference between English and non-English markets.

The third tier includes projects such as $sol, $xrp, $ltc, $doge, $bnb, etc., which are about to be selected for ETFs. Among them, the spot ETF for sol is already being traded, but its trading scale, institutional support, and attractiveness to outside funds are all a level lower than Ethereum. These projects basically have the support of crypto treasuries, but there is not much policy space left. Compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, they can only be referred to as others in terms of policy or media, but they each have their own characteristics. Sol is considered the best in terms of memes, and it occupies a large market share in DeFi, AI, DEPIN, and RWA, making it a hexagonal warrior. Xrp focuses on resources, as it directly competes with SWIFT's business. Over the years, it has integrated many political and business resources, and the ability of the market maker to control is very strong; it hasn't collapsed for over a decade, which is impressive. Ltc mainly relies on the saying "Bitcoin is gold, Litecoin is silver." Since its inception in 2011, it has lasted nearly 15 years and outperforms most altcoins based on consensus level. Doge was born in 2013 and is the ancestor of all memes, with the backing of Musk. Tesla's newly built restaurant and outdoor car cinema even support doge payments, making it the absolute favorite. Bnb, as the only value-capturing tool in the universe, has seen its price rise from 0.5 yuan to over 700 dollars now, and it is currently tied to the Trump family, making its value undeniable. In summary, these projects in the third tier have significant advantages compared to other altcoins.

In the next tier, I believe the leading coins in the DEFI and RWA categories, such as $aave, $link, $uni, $ldo, $ondo, $ena, $jup, $cake, etc., will see significant growth. With genius implementation, on-chain funds will increase, leading to a surge in on-chain transactions or demand for financial management and investment. This will result in a large influx of funds into these types of protocols, and the value of the protocols will undoubtedly rise. Additionally, in the future, there may be more RWA assets like real estate, bonds, stocks, and both tangible and intangible commercial assets coming in, making the future potential of these altcoins substantial.

Then comes the fifth tier. I believe that leading projects like meme\AI and second-tier projects like DEFI\RWA\public chains all belong to this tier. These types of projects can basically maintain a certain market share as the crypto industry develops. They have strong advantages in community stickiness, innovation and development ability, and operational management capability. Their liquidity within the crypto market is relatively good, but they do not have as much potential as the previous tiers, and the entry points for funds are relatively narrow. Mainstream funds are basically not visible, but the recognition from on-site funds is very strong.

The last category is some old coins on the centralized exchanges. Many development teams have run away, and only a few operators remain who release announcements every week. The projects will no longer have substantial innovations, and no new funds will come in. Typical projects of this kind plummet hard during market downturns due to insufficient liquidity; any large holder can easily create a pit. During market uptrends, the increases are minimal, often even less than ETH or SOL, because such price rises are merely created by market makers to show that the project hasn't run away. After all, without new investors to take over, how can there be a rally? For these altcoins, the sooner you run away, the better. You can observe the price charts of these coins against Bitcoin; any small rebound is considered a blessing.