Recently, a latest analysis report from a large Financial Institution in the United States has attracted widespread attention in the market. The report presents some insightful views on the economic outlook and monetary policy direction of the United States.

Analysis points out that although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within this year, the actual situation may differ from expectations. The report believes that the U.S. economy is likely to avoid falling into recession in 2025, while the Federal Reserve is very likely to maintain the current interest rate level unchanged within this year.

The main basis for this view is the continuous resilience shown by the US economy. Consumer spending remains strong, and the rise in goods inflation indicates that the economic fundamentals are still robust. Notably, the latest retail sales data for June exceeded market expectations, further corroborating this judgment.

However, the report also presents a risk point worth following. If interest rates are hastily lowered due to political considerations, it may undermine the stability of market inflation expectations while increasing credit risk. This warning reflects the complex trade-offs that policymakers face when formulating monetary policy.

Looking ahead, the report predicts that the number of unemployment benefit applications may rise slightly, but housing market data is expected to remain relatively stable. It is worth noting that the upcoming durable goods orders data may see a significant decline, with an expected drop of up to 11%.

Overall, this analysis report provides us with a comprehensive perspective, helping us better understand the current economic situation in the United States and the possible policy directions. Despite facing numerous uncertainties, the U.S. economy appears to be operating on a relatively stable track. However, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant and closely follow changes in various economic indicators to make timely and accurate judgments and decisions.