Matrixport Research Report: Bitcoin may enter a consolidation period in the next 1 to 2 months.

July 18 news, according to Matrixport's latest weekly report, recently influenced by favorable releases from US policy, fiscal measures, and macro data, Bitcoin has also entered a new trading range. Technical indicators show that the current Bitcoin price is close to the upper limit of its ascending channel, which may suggest that the market could enter a consolidation phase in the next one to two months.

In the past 18 months, the price of Bitcoin has gradually risen in steps of $16,000, and currently $122,000 is seen as a reasonable target.

In the past 18 months, the price of Bitcoin has steadily risen in increments of approximately $16,000. This is because $106,000 was a clear resistance level for BTC in the first quarter, and after entering the second quarter, that price became a key support level.

Based on this structure, $122,000 is the next reasonable target. Although Bitcoin recently briefly touched this level, it quickly fell back, indicating that the market may enter a phase of consolidation, aiming to build momentum for the next round of upward trends.

The view is that, considering that Bitcoin may enter a consolidation period in the summer and the next round of macro catalysts (such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve) is still unclear, moderately locking in some profits is a rational choice.

From a technical perspective, the current technical indicators show that BTC has entered the overbought zone (RSI has broken 70), and several reversal signals are also showing signs of a pullback. If BTC falls back to the $106,000-$108,000 range and stabilizes, it will relieve the technical pressure and create conditions for the next round of increase. Therefore, if the market wants to maintain the uptrend, it still needs new catalysts to drive it.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the core CPI in the United States rose from 2.8% in April to 2.9% in July, with the increase being lower than expected. The data released in the past five instances has also mostly been below expectations, indicating that the market may have overestimated inflationary pressures.

Despite Trump's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve, given that current inflation is still above the 2% target level, while overall economic performance is also better than expected. Therefore, the Federal Reserve lacks sufficient reasons to cut interest rates at the July meeting, but may signal a potential intention to adjust rates in September.

#BTC # Macroeconomics #Federal Reserve