Crypto Market Observation: Easing Policies and Improved Geopolitical Situations Drive Market Pump

Market Overview

Recently, the macro environment has shown a positive shift. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has eased geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite, causing oil prices to fall back to pre-conflict levels, and gold briefly dipped below the $3300 mark. The Federal Reserve Chairman released key signals during a congressional hearing: although he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that it is more likely to wait until the September meeting to decide on a policy shift. He stated that if inflationary pressures are controlled, there will be "earlier rather than later rate cuts," but the current strong economy does not require hasty action, while also pointing out that tariff uncertainty is the main reason for postponing rate cuts.

This statement was interpreted by the market as a dovish tendency, combined with the easing of geopolitical risks, which drove US stocks to rise sharply across the board—Nasdaq 100 hit a new historical high, and the Dow Jones soared by 500 points in a single day, while US Treasury yields and the dollar declined simultaneously. It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve Chairman reiterated the independence of monetary policy in response to pressure for interest rate cuts, emphasizing that decisions are based solely on economic data. Additionally, industry observations indicate that US shale oil producers have shifted from "increasing production to buffer oil prices" to "focusing on investment returns," which may weaken the traditional energy price volatility adjustment mechanism.

crypto market dynamics

Driven by positive news, Bitcoin has broken through $106,000, but its performance remains relatively restrained. Analysts point out that the 13% rise in Bitcoin from the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in capital inflow, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards structural changes. Currently, the concentration of chips within 5% of the Bitcoin spot price has reached 14.5%. If it breaks through 15%, the market may experience significant fluctuations.

In terms of technical analysis, several analysts have given similar predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trend: the price may consolidate at the current level, and if it breaks through $107,000, it is expected to rise to $110,000; otherwise, it may fall below $102,000. Some opinions suggest that Bitcoin may briefly rise to $107,000 before quickly retreating to test the liquidity in the range of $104,000 to $105,000.

In terms of Ethereum, analysis shows that a certain trading platform experienced large-scale fund withdrawals on June 23, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform, indicating that trader sentiment may have shifted from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. As the fund rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see a significant pump, as its profit supply ratio is far lower than that of Bitcoin, demonstrating potential for catching up.

However, some analysts hold a different view, believing that the ETH price has failed to break through $3000 for more than 20 consecutive weeks, which has damaged market confidence and faces fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return to above $3000 in the short term.

Market Hotspots

1. A certain trading platform is seeking regulatory approval to launch tokenized stock trading services. If the plan is approved, the platform will enter the stock trading field using blockchain technology, further blurring the lines between traditional brokers and crypto platforms.

2. The attitude of US regulatory agencies towards the encryption industry has shifted, as they have not only withdrawn lawsuits against multiple crypto companies but also established a crypto working group to formulate regulations for digital assets.

3. Multiple Meme coin projects have gained market popularity, such as $solami and $ACID, but their market value fluctuates significantly.

4. Traditional financial institutions are accelerating their布局 in the encryption field, such as the US stock company Nano Labs announcing the acquisition of BNB as a strategic reserve through a $500 million convertible bond, driving the stock price to rise by 150% in a single day.

5. The Hong Kong market has made breakthrough progress, as a brokerage firm has obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese brokerage firm to offer mainstream coin trading services. This news has stimulated a significant rise in its Hong Kong stock price.

Overall, the improvement of the macro environment and the shift in regulatory attitudes have brought positive news to the crypto market, but the market remains cautious. Although the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen, they are under certain pressure. Investors should closely monitor regulatory trends and technological developments, and carefully assess the risks.