The latest released US Consumer Price Index for June (CPI) shows a moderate rise in overall inflation levels. The annual inflation rate climbed to 2.7%, a new high in nearly four months, while the monthly increase of 0.3% is also the highest level in the past six months. These figures are generally in line with market expectations.

In terms of core CPI, the annual increase reached 2.9%, although it did not touch the market expectation of 3%, it still saw a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. The monthly data was 0.2%, slightly below expectations.

Given that the current level of inflation has not shown significant abnormalities, it is widely believed within the industry that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates at its monetary policy meeting in July. This situation is akin to a student’s exam scores being average, neither particularly commendable nor warranting harsh criticism. Therefore, the Federal Reserve is likely to choose to continue adopting a wait-and-see approach, closely monitoring changes in economic data.

Currently, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve may delay the timing of the next possible policy adjustment until September. Before that, decision-makers will continue to assess various economic indicators to determine whether further adjustments to monetary policy are necessary. This cautious attitude reflects the complexity and uncertainty of the current economic environment.

Overall, although the inflation data has slightly risen, it has not caused excessive concern in the market. Investors and analysts will continue to closely monitor economic data in the coming months to anticipate the next steps of the Federal Reserve.