BTC hits a new high: What favourable information is there? Is the main rise coming?

Recently, the global market has been turbulent. Bitcoin has set a new historical high after nearly two months. While the financial market is generally focused on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, Bitcoin continued to gain momentum early this morning, breaking through 116,500 USD during trading, setting a new historical high, which brings its cumulative increase this year close to 20%. This wave of Bitcoin's rise has also driven the increase of nearly the entire cryptocurrency market.
Previously, during the important holiday in the crypto industry, "Pizza Day", Bitcoin broke through $110,000. After two months of fluctuating between the $100,000 and $110,000 range, Bitcoin has once again set a new all-time high. What favourable information stimulated this sudden surge in Bitcoin? What will the market trend look like in the future?
1. Multiple factors stimulate the continuous rise of BTC
1. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the June meeting, investors are positioning for "rate cut trades".
The minutes of the June meeting released by the Federal Reserve brought complex yet suggestive information to the market. The minutes indicate that there are significant divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the outlook for monetary policy, divided into three main camps: (1) Mainstream camp: Most participants assessed that a reduction in the federal funds rate target range may be appropriate this year, but ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in July; (2) Hawkish camp: A minority of participants believe that the federal funds rate target range should not be lowered this year; (3) Dovish camp: A minority of participants (possibly including Fed governors Waller and Bowman) pointed out that if the data develops as they expect, they would be willing to consider lowering the policy rate target range at the next meeting.
Although there are differences within the Federal Reserve, the signal that "the majority of participants assess that a rate cut this year may be appropriate" undoubtedly enhances the market's expectations for future liquidity easing, which is a positive macro catalyst for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
2. The introduction of the Trump Tax Expenditure Act has created fiscal risks that spur demand for BTC.
On July 4th local time, U.S. President Trump signed the "Great and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, making it effective. The bill has been controversial due to its cuts to federal aid, increases in long-term debt, and tax reductions for the wealthy and large corporations. Under the current terms, the bill is expected to increase the federal deficit by about $3 trillion over the next 10 years; if certain expirations are extended, the deficit could reach as high as $5 trillion.
After the bill takes effect, its revenue and expenditure combination will put U.S. Treasury bonds on an unsustainable path.
Although the U.S. government will not default in the short term, an unsustainable debt path will increase the long-term risk of macro mismanagement, thereby enhancing investors' interest in non-sovereign value storage methods such as gold and BTC.
3. The market is no longer concerned about the tariff war, and US stocks and cryptocurrencies have regained lost ground and reached new highs.
On the 7th local time, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so-called "reciprocal tariff" deferral period, delaying the implementation date from July 9 to August 1. Starting from the early morning of the 8th Beijing time, Trump has successively announced his tariff letters to multiple countries, and he has now sent tariff letters to 22 countries. The market is no longer concerned about the tariff war; after the tariff war in April, U.S. stocks have fully recovered and reached new highs. In the early morning today, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded, and the Nasdaq closed with a new historical record.
Although tariffs have impacted the cryptocurrency market, the recent market performance has been very stable, reflecting the characteristic of cryptocurrencies being highly volatile and responsive during periods of global uncertainty. Cryptocurrencies are increasingly seen as a valuable hedging tool, unaffected by any government or policy decisions. Therefore, investors may be more inclined towards Bitcoin as a safe-haven hedging asset, thereby stimulating the rise of Bitcoin.
4. The SEC released a statement on the tokenization of securities, and cryptocurrency enters the mainstream financial system.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued a statement on the tokenization of securities, indicating that blockchain technology has opened up new models for issuing and trading securities in a "tokenized" form. Tokenization has the potential to facilitate capital formation and enhance investors' ability to use their assets as collateral. However, tokenized securities are still securities. Therefore, market participants must carefully consider and comply with relevant federal securities laws when trading such instruments. Recently, Robinhood and Kraken launched tokenized stock trading for the first time. Robinhood's system is based on the Ethereum Layer 2 network Arbitrum, while Kraken's xStocks system is based on Solana. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that tokenization is a significant "innovation" and added that the U.S. SEC "should focus on how to advance tokenization in the market," and that the days of regulating through enforcement "are over."
The rise of tokenized securities has propelled the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry into the mainstream financial market and stimulated the continued rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
5. Cryptocurrency vault companies are emerging continuously, and demands such as ETFs are reshaping the BTC market landscape.
The pioneer in corporate Bitcoin investment, Strategy, has significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings, with a market value far exceeding the value of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, indicating that there is excess demand in the market for gaining Bitcoin exposure through equity instruments. More companies are beginning to adopt this strategy, with some extending it to other digital assets beyond Bitcoin. In addition to Bitcoin, SharpLink Gaming has announced its transformation into an Ethereum treasury company with support from investors in the crypto space such as Consensys. Other entrepreneurs are further expanding this model, creating crypto treasury companies targeting Solana (Upexi), XRP (VivoPower), and even Trump-themed meme coins (Freight Technologies). The surge in crypto treasury companies reflects strong investor interest in gaining exposure to crypto assets traded on stock exchanges.
In addition, the demand for traditional financial instruments such as ETFs is reshaping the Bitcoin market landscape. Unlike the past, which primarily relied on retail investors, the current round of increases is characterized by a structural inflow of institutional funds. Data shows that institutional investors are continuously buying Bitcoin through various financial instruments, and this demand pattern is more stable compared to the speculative buying seen in history.
II. How will the future trend of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market be?
Currently, not only is the cryptocurrency market seeing a resurgence, but the strength of large tech stocks is also stimulating a return to risk appetite, with the three major US stock indices rebounding and the Nasdaq closing at a new historical record. Nvidia briefly surpassed a market value of $4 trillion. The demand for the 10-year US Treasury bond auction was strong, leading to a rise in US bond prices, recovering all losses from this week. It can be said that we are currently in the rhythm of a bull market development. What will the future direction of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency market be? Is there still momentum for continued growth? Will we see a main rise?
At present, the channel for Bitcoin's continuous rise has been opened. Whether other altcoins can follow the rise is still uncertain.
1. Adam Guren, Chief Investment Officer of Hunting Hill, pointed out that Bitcoin's breakthrough of $112,000 reflects the compound effect of ETF inflows, rising institutional adoption, and a favourable macro environment: "Unlike previous cycles, the current demand is structural, regulated, and sticky."
2. The Chief Investment Officer of the cryptocurrency trading company, Vincent Liu, stated that traders should remain vigilant about potential profit-taking or macroeconomic changes that could trigger a pullback, but the current trend still firmly looks bullish.
3. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that the Bitcoin 30-day Unrealized P/L Ratio is at the 80th percentile. This indicator shows that the ratio of the amount of coins currently in profit to those in loss is significantly higher than usual, indicating that most Bitcoin holders are in profit. Since this indicator has not yet reached the extreme range of 90-100%, it means that there is still room for the Bitcoin price to rise further before holders start actively selling.
4. Matt Mena, a cryptocurrency research strategist at 21Shares, stated: As the M2 money supply begins to rise again, historical data indicates that some liquidity will flow into Bitcoin and other digital assets. Historically, the price of Bitcoin has tracked the M2 money supply, which is the Federal Reserve's estimate of liquid assets, including cash, deposits in checking accounts, savings accounts, and other short-term savings instruments like money market funds. Cryptocurrency influencer Anthony Pompliano said: If Bitcoin continues to follow the increase in money supply, we may see the price of each Bitcoin reach $150,000 by the end of the year.
5. Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole's technical analysis shows that a potential bullish trend is forming on-chain, with more and more traders expecting Ethereum (ETH) to reach $3,000 in the near future. Additionally, the Ethereum validator architecture is undergoing changes, which may solidify ETH's position as Wall Street's most popular programmable asset.
6. IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a client report, "The new historical high has emerged in the context of improved risk sentiment. Although the new high has not yet sparked the market's expectations, Bitcoin still has room to rise further towards $120,000."
7. Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, stated that the price of BTC will grow 15 times in the next five years. "BTC represents a unique global currency system, and as more and more investors hold it, its volatility is decreasing."