LAST MINUTE: The Much-Awaited FED Minutes Have Been Released! Here Are All the Details

The minutes containing the details of the FED's interest rate decision meeting in June have been shared with the public.

Here are all the details from the FED minutes:

• All participants believed that it was appropriate to keep the federal funds rate within the current target range.
• Several participants noted that the current federal funds rate may not be significantly above the neutral rate.
• FED officials expect that real GDP growth in 2025 will be higher than previous forecasts, while inflation will be lower than previous forecasts.
• Participants assessed that the uncertainty in the economic outlook has decreased as a result of the announced and expected customs duty reductions, but overall uncertainty remains at high levels.
• Most officials believe that customs duties can lead to permanent inflation risks.
• Most participants thought that the federal funds interest rate should be appropriately lowered this year.
• A few participants indicated that they might consider a rate cut at the July meeting if the data develops as expected.
• Participants agreed that the risks of rising inflation and weakening labor market have decreased, but remain at high levels.
• Some participants stated that the best course of action is not to implement interest rate cuts in 2025.

In particular, the remarks by FED members Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, stating that a rate cut could be considered at the July meeting, drew attention. Both individuals were appointed during President Donald Trump's first term.

In the meeting in June, the FED kept the policy interest rate steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50. However, the minutes were shared retroactively as they came after the meeting held three weeks ago. This means that the minutes are from before the strong employment report released in June and before Trump's threat to impose new tariffs of 25% on major trading partners like Japan and South Korea starting August 1.

While Trump's calls for a clear interest rate cut to the central bank continue, data such as inflationary pressures and slowing employment growth are leaving the FED in a dilemma. On one hand, the FED is trying to maintain the 2% inflation target, while on the other hand, it continues its mission to keep the unemployment rate low.