0704 Bitcoin market report 📢📢📣📣 #非农就业数据来袭#

Bitcoin is approaching its historical high, with the intraday price once reaching a high of 110,500 USD, and then slightly retreating under the pressure of profit-taking from bulls, currently oscillating in the 109,000-110,000 USD range. If it stabilizes above the psychological level of 110,000 USD, it is likely to test 112,000 USD; conversely, if it breaks below the support level of 108,500 USD, it may short-term dip to 107,800 USD (4-hour E-MA 60 support). One trader stated: the price needs to maintain momentum at high levels, or it would be best to close around 110,000 USD; another trader indicated that if Bitcoin falls back to the 108,000 USD level it just returned to on Wednesday without a significant push higher, it could trigger a bearish trend, with the price likely falling below 100,000 USD; however, most traders and analysts remain confident in Bitcoin's upward trend, stating: "it's hard to be bearish right now."

🔊🔊Technical Indicator Analysis: The 4-hour MA-CD histogram continues to expand, forming a golden cross, indicating that bullish strength is continuously increasing; the current RSI value is around 68, situated in a neutral to bullish range, with no top divergence observed, showing that the upward momentum has not yet weakened; short-term moving averages (MA-10) and MA-30 have formed a golden cross, and the price is stabilizing above MA-60, establishing a medium-term upward trend.

🔊🔊Formation and Technical Support: The 4-hour K-line presents an "Ascending Three Methods" formation, with the closing price firmly above $109,500, combined with increased trading volume, indicating strong bullish control; the key volume-price relationship is good, with price increases accompanied by a simultaneous rise in trading volume, showing no divergence, which suggests a strong willingness for market capital inflow. Short-term support: 108,500 (intraday Fibonacci 23.6% retracement), 107,650 (38.2%). Mid-term resistance: 112,000 (historical high point 61.8% extension).

🔔🔔Technical and External Risks: If the price fails to break through $112,000 for a long time, it may form a "double top" pattern again, leading to further sell-offs and a pullback to around $105,000; pay attention to the progress of the tariff exemption period on July 9. If no agreement is reached, risk assets (Bitcoin) may come under pressure again.

📕📕Summary: Bitcoin is currently in a critical breakout phase, and the short-term focus should be on the breakout strength of the psychological level of 110,000 USD. The technical analysis shows strong bullish momentum with good volume-price synergy, but caution is needed regarding selling pressure at historical highs above. Keep a close eye on ET-F fund flows, as well as changes in the latest policies and on-chain data.

🔑🔑Action Suggestions: 1. Range Trading: Sell high and buy low within the range of $108,000 - $110,500, setting take profit and stop loss at (10.96, 10.87); 2. Bullish: If the price breaks through the resistance of $110,000 and the trading volume increases to over $50 billion, consider lightly entering a position, targeting $111,000 - $112,000; build long positions in batches at $107,800 - $106,700, targeting $108,600 - $109,000; 3. Bearish: If the price falls below $108,500 and fills the lower shadow, consider trying a short position if it rebounds to $109,500, targeting $107,800, with the stop loss set at $110,000.