## 📉 **1. Current Technical Trends and Bullish/Bearish Momentum**

1. **Short-term trend is weak**
- The current price is **$2530-2550** (down 2.6% for the day), the 4-hour candlestick chart shows consecutive bearish declines, the MACD histogram remains in negative territory and is expanding, indicating that bearish momentum is dominant.
- The daily EMA15 (2530) is currently supported, but the EMA30 (2400) is the next key defense line; if it falls below 2530, it may accelerate the decline to the 2400-2260 range.
- **Oversold Signal**: 4-hour KDJ value at 30 (neutral to weak), RSI approaching the oversold zone, indicating a technical rebound is needed, but confirmation with trading volume is required.

2. **On-chain Chip Distribution**
- **Strong Support Zone**：
- **2400-2500 USD**: The golden cross of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages strengthens support, combined with the whale cost zone (1.5 million ETH held long-term).
- **2260-2100 USD**: The confluence zone of the 50-day SMA and 100-day SMA, extreme market defense level.
- **Strong Resistance Zone**：
- **2700-2800 USD**: 4.7 million ETH trapped chips concentrated area, breakthrough requires a huge buying volume (daily trading volume > 15 billion USD).
- **2850 USD**: Daily Bollinger upper band + previous high resistance, a breakthrough would open up the space to 3000 USD.

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📍 **2. Summary of Core Support and Resistance Levels**
| **Key Position** | **Price Range (USD)** | **Technical/On-chain Basis** | **Importance** |
|----------------|----------------------|---------------------------------------|------------|
| **Support Level** | 2530-2550 | EMA15 Trend Line + Short-term Bull-Bear Threshold | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| | 2400-2500 | 50/100 Daily Average Golden Cross + Whale Cost Zone | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| | 2260-2100 | Lower boundary of the medium-term upward channel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| **Resistance Level** | 2620-2650 | 4-hour EMA90 + Bollinger Middle Band Resistance | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| | 2700-2800 | 4.7 million ETH trapped + daily high | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| | 2850 | Bollinger Upper Band + Psychological Barrier | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

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⚡ **3. 100x Contract Trading Strategy (Long and Short)**
**⚠️ Important Premise**: 100x leverage is extremely high risk, with a single position ≤1% of the principal (e.g.: with a principal of 10,000 U, the position size ≤ 100 U), strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline!

**Strategy 1: Short on Rebound (Main Strategy)**
- **Opening Range**: **2620-2600 USD**
- Basis: 4-hour EMA90 (2620) resistance + Bollinger middle band resistance, rebound weakness signal.
- **Stop Loss**: **2650 USD** (breakout indicates a stronger trend)
- **Take Profit Ladder**:
- **First Target**: 2550 (Profit ≈ 3.5 times)
- **Second Goal**: 2500 (Profit ≈ 5 times)
- **Third Target**: 2450 (Trailing Stop Loss Protection)
- **Position Management**: Open a position with 1% of the principal, increase by 0.5% when it rebounds to 2650 (total risk ≤ 2%).

**Strategy 2: Buy the Dip (Secondary Strategy)**
- **Opening Range**: **2400-2420 USD**
- Basis: 50-day moving average support + whale cost zone, oversold rebound probability > 60%.
- **Stop Loss**: **2380 USD** (stop loss triggered upon breaking level)
- **Take Profit Ladder**:
- **First Target**: 2500 (Profit ≈ 4 times)
- **Second Target**: 2580 (Profit ≈ 8 times)
- **Third Target**: 2650 (move stop loss to breakeven)