🌹A night of bulls returning? BTC surged to 97800, are retail investors chasing the price or taking profit? Recently, the autumn rain contracts have all made gains on 108 orders / all spot has taken off + a 21-lecture series on the teaching of the Chandelier Theory👇

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The price of Bitcoin has been in a continuous downward trend since January, and the overall market for cryptocurrencies has been sluggish. However, starting last night, BTC rebounded and reached a high price of over $97,800, which may signal that Bitcoin is about to start a new long-term upward trend.
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The current price of BTC is reported at 96,500 USD, with a daily high of 97,850 USD. The entire crypto market is also in sync with Bitcoin's price, with many cryptocurrencies recording double-digit gains. For a moment, the sound of bulls returning is incessant. What has caused the crypto market to suddenly rebound significantly? How will the market trend in the future?
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🔥Is Trump going to drop the tariff stick? Early this morning, Trump stated that the tariffs on Chinese goods will not reach 145%, and the tariffs will decrease significantly, but will not be zero. When asked if he would take a tough stance against China, Trump said he would not. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Basent hinted at a loosening of tariff policies during a closed-door meeting at JPMorgan. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated at a press conference that Trump's relationship with China is moving in the right direction.
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Today the market welcomes a day of compromise: Trump seems to be conceding on trade policies and the issue of Powell's tenure, leading stock index futures to rise in response; Musk also declared that he will gradually step back from the government efficiency department and return to Tesla's main business. The market is like this; it will always force you to bow your head and admit defeat.
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The US dollar continues to recover some of yesterday's losses. Meanwhile, the stock market is strengthening, and there is some small buying in bonds. The market is eager to hear good news. Today's good news is that Trump remains silent on trade issues. This may lead some market participants to believe that he is eager to reach a deal, as well as anything that could reverse the market.
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🎉Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve in the financial markets. The tension between Trump and Fed Chair Powell is escalating. The divergence between the two mainly focuses on concerns about inflation pressures brought by tariffs and the Fed's unwillingness to cut interest rates, casting a shadow over the dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, has been falling since February, reaching its lowest point since 2022. Trump's public pressure on Powell, along with speculation that he may attempt to remove Powell or other Fed officials, has intensified concerns about the independence of the Fed—an independence that is a fundamental pillar of the U.S. financial system.
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The potential consequences of the depreciation of the US dollar on the global economy are difficult to predict, but one thing is certain: Bitcoin will be a major beneficiary. It is a decentralized, censorship-resistant currency, entirely governed by code, with a fixed supply schedule and no central authority manipulating its issuance. As confidence in traditional currency systems continues to wane, the narrative around Bitcoin is becoming increasingly strong.
If concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve continue, Bitcoin may rise to historical highs. Due to its decentralized ledger, cryptocurrency serves as a hedge against the risks of the existing financial system. This was reflected in U.S. Treasury bond risks after Trump suggested he might dismiss Fed Chairman Powell in hopes of interest rate cuts. The yield premium for investors purchasing long-term Treasury bonds relative to short-term bonds has significantly increased, benefiting Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has decisively broken through months of downward trend, and when the technical downward trend is broken, a technical upward trend will emerge.
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🎉Bitcoin's market share has risen to a nearly four-year high. Today, Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) surged to 64.61%, reaching its highest level since February 2021. The high Bitcoin market share indicates a lull in the altcoin market, but it also suggests that a rebound is imminent. According to historical data, when Bitcoin's market share surged above 60% last November, altcoins began a small bull market. In both 2019 and 2021, Bitcoin's market share also reached highs of over 70%, followed by a remarkable rally.
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How will BTC's future rise trend? In the long term, the institutional demand for Bitcoin from exchange-traded funds (ETF) and traders seeking to hedge against macroeconomic risks may lead to Bitcoin's price doubling this year. The driving factors of institutional demand (including corporate Bitcoin buyers and exchanges) may continue to push positive price trends. Despite the optimism among investors being reignited and new hopes for easing Sino-U.S. trade tensions, there are still headwinds against Bitcoin's rise that may limit further increases. If market sentiment weakens, a market correction may occur.
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Due to tariffs and policy uncertainty putting pressure on the economy, the U.S. GDP is expected to grow only 0.5% in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Currently, surveys of businesses and consumers indicate an economic slowdown, but official economic data has not yet shown this sign.
Economic indicators may begin to more clearly show signs of recession in the late summer. The evolution of data in recent weeks is consistent with the previous 'event-driven' slowdown in growth. However, it is still too early to draw strong conclusions from the currently limited data.
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Regarding the dynamics of Sino-U.S. trade, we have seen a shift in the Sino-U.S. trade game from "high-profile confrontation" to "high-pressure negotiations + gradual easing." We are currently still in a period of extreme uncertainty, with the market in a state of fluctuation rather than trend—just oscillation, response, and waiting.
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🎉Today the fear index is 67, and the market has turned to greed overnight. Bitcoin surged to 9.78, which was actually a bit unexpected, didn't think it would reach that overnight. For the short term, let's reduce positions at 9.7. The US stock market opened high, and the Japanese and Korean stock markets also opened high. Trump can't keep old Powell, and the easing of tariff issues has driven this rise. Actually, the increase isn't that much, but the fear index is strangely high. Let's first pocket some profits in the short term, and it's not too late to enter again once the tariff issues are genuinely resolved and clear signals for interest rate cuts are given.
#sol# #alpaca# #sui# #eth# #btc#