🔥The May interest rate meeting is coming: Bitcoin pump or dumping? The ETF wave spurs alts "10x dark horse + the 21st lecture on the theory of evolution (pictures 4-9)👇

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Current Trend Analysis:
During this May Day holiday, the short-term high point rose to around 98000, but faced resistance and saw a decline. Currently, the price has retraced to around 93800. From a smaller timeframe perspective, there are preliminary signs of a stop in the decline. Pay attention to the emergence of clear stop signals.
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The entire market has been overshadowed by a bearish trend these past few days, with concerns about a continued pullback for those who haven’t reduced their positions, while those looking to buy more are afraid of buying in the middle of a rise. Bitcoin and Ethereum have been fluctuating at high levels for a whole week. I hope you can stay calm before a new trend emerges and buy cheaper tokens.
The position near 94500 for Bitcoin has become a resistance, suppressing the correction. The support has dropped to around 91800, showing a trend of fluctuating decline, with no signs of a turn upwards yet. Before a strong rebound, there is a high probability of an accelerated volume drop, which aligns with the saying "no breaking, no standing" (as shown in Figure 1).
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Ethereum is once again facing a test at the 1800 mark. Similar to Bitcoin, the area around 1810 has become a resistance that is suppressing its rebound. The support below is near 1740, showing a trend of oscillating pullback. This support at 1740 is particularly crucial, as it determines whether the overall altcoin market can continue to be bullish. Currently, it is still in a pullback trend.
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🎉This Thursday at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rates. Trump has repeatedly called for a rate cut, while more voices suggest keeping it unchanged. This data will directly affect the short-term market trends and may also be a turning point, so everyone should be mentally prepared.
The market's predicted probabilities for the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in May and June are 97.2% and 65.1%, respectively. So far, the market still believes that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in May, and this probability should be quite large. After the GDP and non-farm data are released, expectations for not cutting rates in June are also increasing. The market has begun to abandon the possibility of the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates without a recession (as shown in Chart 2).
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The expectation of no interest rate cut has already been anticipated, and the situation for a rate cut within the year has been considered; the previous economic and employment data met expectations, so it is estimated that there may not be a dovish stance.
As for the mention of pausing the tapering, I don't think old Powell will say that so soon. Other remarks are either neutral or slightly biased. Without significant dovish comments, it will be very difficult to rise, so it will be a pullback and fluctuation.
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🎉The K-line trend has stabilized around 93,100 since the 25th, and looking at the URPD data chart, there is also a huge amount of chips accumulated here at 93,100. For now, it can still fluctuate above 93,100. Let's see the market sentiment after the US stock market opens, as well as the market's expectations for the interest rate meeting and what old Powell actually says. (As shown in the figure 3)
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It is still a low liquidity moment, and the price is slightly declining.
Unless the event stimulates negative sentiment, the downward trend will become clearer, but it hasn't happened yet. So let's observe for now.
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 🎉Some news and data for this week
Monday: The non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be between 50.5-51.5, slightly above 50 but with weak growth (above 50 is bullish)
Tuesday: If the central bank governor hints at the forum that "inflation is still high, and high interest rates need to be maintained," it may strengthen hawkish expectations, which is bearish. If he mentions "economic weakness, and the need for easing," the market may bet on rate cuts in advance, which is bullish for the stock market and cryptocurrencies, and Powell may also make a statement at the forum.
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 🎉Recently, the cryptocurrency world has been lively, everyone is talking about the ETF altcoin season, and many are wondering: Can XRP ride this wave and rise significantly?
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A few days ago, it suddenly spread online that "the US SEC approved the XRP spot ETF," and the XRP price immediately rose by 5%. However, it soon fell back, and everyone realized it was a false report. In fact, ProShares in the US is set to launch three XRP-related ETFs on April 30, but these ETFs do not directly buy XRP; instead, they make money by betting on the rise and fall of XRP futures prices - there are three types: 2x long, 1x short, and 2x short.
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There are now 4 XRP ETFs in the United States, all of which are futures products with no spot products. However, on April 25, Brazil took the lead in launching the XRP spot ETF. Additionally, the Chicago exchange is also set to launch the XRP futures on May 19, which may be preparing for the future introduction of a spot ETF.
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🎉The question arises, when will the US SEC approve the XRP spot ETF? Companies like Grayscale have long submitted their applications, but the SEC has remained tight-lipped. Now that the ETF altcoin season is approaching, there are over 70 ETF applications in the queue, and everyone is hoping that the new SEC chairman will relax the approval process.
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Next, XRP, Sol, and LTC are seen as key focus objects, while Doge, Bonk, and PENGU are also riding the ETF hype. To be honest, those following the trend are likely here to harvest retail investors. In comparison, XRP has a market cap of 134.5 billion, and SOL has a market cap of 76.9 billion. From the perspective of scale and ecological development, SOL may have a greater possibility of price rise in the future.
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This article only provides information based on personal opinions.
#sol# #virtual# #sui# #eth# #btc#