Bitcoin long-term holders are becoming calm, on-chain signals suggest classic accumulation.

Gate News bot message, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out a compelling on-chain signal that further enhances this optimistic sentiment. The spending activity of the entire Long-Term Holder (LTH) group is nearing historical lows, a level typically associated with accumulation phases. In the past four similar cases, Bitcoin rose 18-25% in the following 6-8 weeks on three occasions. This indicates that experienced holders have a strong belief in Bitcoin.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

Adler also pointed out that the current weak state of the LTH binary indicator has been reinforced by other bullish signals: the positive shift in CDD momentum (coin days destroyed) and the MVRV Z-score still being at a high level. These two indicators have historically corresponded with trend continuation and undervaluation periods.

Overall, these on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin is quietly building a foundation, with long-term holders increasing their holdings rather than selling. Although short-term volatility may persist, the overall structure indicates that once uncertainty is removed, Bitcoin could see a breakthrough.

Bitcoinist analysis indicates that Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $105,569 on the daily chart, consolidating within a clear range between the support level of $103,600 and the resistance level of $109,300. This range has been maintained for several weeks, with BTC repeatedly testing both boundaries, but no confirmed breakout or breakdown has occurred. The level of $103,600—the historical high that Bitcoin reached in December 2024—has now become a key demand area. Despite recent macro market volatility and escalating concerns over the Middle East conflict, buyers have consistently entered near this level, preventing further price declines.

From the moving averages, BTC remains above the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) simple moving averages, indicating that the mid-term momentum is still bullish. The 200-day moving average (red) is far below the current price, reinforcing BTC's overall upward trend. If the daily closing price breaks through 109,300 USD, it could signal a return of the price discovery mechanism, potentially triggering new bullish momentum and possibly breaking through 1.12 million USD.

However, if macroeconomic panic sentiment rises again or negative news reappears, the support level of $103,600 may not hold, and BTC could drop to the range of $97,000-98,000. Before that, the market seems to be in a wait-and-see state. As long as the support level continues to attract buyers, and the higher timeframe structure remains unchanged, this pattern still has a constructive outlook.

(Source: Trading View)