2025 Macro Analysis of the Crypto Market: New Bull Run Under Policy Resonance

1. Macroeconomic Background: Policy Easing and Market Sentiment Shift

In May 2025, the People's Bank of China implemented a "dual reduction" policy, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reducing the policy interest rate to 1.4%, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity. At the same time, expectations for high-level China-U.S. economic and trade negotiations were positive, boosting global risk appetite sentiment. This series of policy signals reshaped investor sentiment, bringing a huge positive impact to the crypto market. The rise of risk assets such as Bitcoin is a direct reflection of the shift in market sentiment.

Global liquidity has increased significantly, Asian stock markets have risen, and commodity prices are climbing, as traditional investors turn to the crypto market in search of opportunities. Bitcoin, due to its fixed supply and anti-inflation properties, is increasingly favored by capital and is seen as a long-term store of value.

On the Federal Reserve front, although expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened, the market generally believes that the current interest rate policy will be maintained in the short term. The strengthening of the dollar has a profound impact on global capital flows, but has not significantly affected the demand for crypto assets. Investors are seeking stable value storage tools amid policy uncertainty, which has increased the demand for Bitcoin.

Overall, the resonance of Sino-U.S. policies and the shift in market sentiment will profoundly affect the global capital markets, especially the crypto market. The global risk appetite is rising, leading to a surge in demand for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. However, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policies may bring volatility, and investors need to maintain flexible strategies, focusing on Web3 projects with practical application scenarios, particularly in innovative areas such as cross-border payments and digital identity verification.

2. Bitcoin Market: Price Approaches $100,000

In 2025, Bitcoin is showing a strong upward trend, repeatedly approaching the historical threshold of $100,000. This round of increase is driven by both the resonance of macro policy backgrounds and the internal structural evolution of the crypto industry, reflecting the release of risk aversion demand, institutional recognition, influx of institutions, and valuation reconstruction.

Unlike previous periods, institutional investors have become the dominant force in this round of price increase. Large asset management institutions are positioning themselves in Bitcoin ETFs, promoting its move towards institutional allocation. The growing diversity of crypto financial products in places like Hong Kong and Dubai, along with increased regulatory transparency, has allowed Bitcoin to enter more traditional capital pools. The influx of institutional funds has enhanced market depth and stability, reducing volatility.

The logic of supply-side scarcity continues to amplify Bitcoin's value. After the halving in April 2024, new supply will be significantly compressed, and the inflation rate will drop below 1%. On the demand side, there is exponential growth driven by multiple factors such as ETF listings and central bank purchases. The asymmetry in supply and demand structure forms the fundamental support for price increase.

The market may still experience severe fluctuations in the short term. Factors such as concentrated trading by whale accounts and high-frequency algorithmic trading have led to increased volatility near key levels. Some old capital is taking the opportunity to distribute, combined with retail investors' "fear of heights," which may trigger a phase correction. On-chain indicators show that the market structure is transitioning from early believers to mainstream incremental users.

In terms of public opinion, the media widely promotes the historical significance of Bitcoin approaching $100,000, creating a "FOMO effect." However, excessive speculation also brings bubble risks, as high-leverage users concentrated in trading can easily trigger a liquidation cascade.

Overall, Bitcoin approaching $100,000 represents a leap in its status within the global capital system. Against the backdrop of de-dollarization and a resurgence of risk aversion, Bitcoin has become a strategic asset for a new round of global wealth redistribution. Although there are short-term adjustment risks, it is still at the starting point of a new consensus cycle in the medium to long term.

3. Web3 Ecosystem Development: Driven by Policy and Technology

With the easing of macro policies and key technological breakthroughs, the Web3 ecosystem enters a new development cycle. Three major forces—policy guidance, technological innovation, and application expansion—are driving Web3 from concept to large-scale implementation.

In terms of policy support, the attitude in the United States is shifting from "regulatory suppression" to "strategic acceptance." The Bitcoin reserve bill passed by New Hampshire is a milestone that incorporates Bitcoin into the state government's financial reserves. This provides a pilot template for other states and may trigger a trend of BTC adoption by local governments. At the federal level, the "Financial Innovation and Future Technology Act" is being promoted, which defines mainstream digital assets as non-securities commodities and establishes a unified regulatory framework. The shift in the U.S. is prompting other countries to follow suit, driving global Web3 ecosystem collaboration.

In terms of technological progress, modular blockchain and foundational technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs have entered the practical stage, significantly enhancing Web3 network performance. The MCP protocol, which integrates AI and Web3, has taken shape, enabling on-chain intelligence to possess self-evolution capabilities. These new technologies are breaking through the original bottlenecks of the Web3 system, giving on-chain applications the potential to compete with Web2.

The application scenarios are constantly expanding. Cross-border payments, digital identity authentication ( DID ) have become important breakthroughs for the implementation of Web3. On-chain social networking, gaming, and civic voting are also ushering in explosive opportunities due to the maturity of the DID system. Overall, three types of application driving forces are formed: the upgrade of traditional industry chain demands, the advancement of encryption native demands, and the cultural resonance of global youth for free collaboration.

4. Risk Factors and Investment Strategies

Despite the strong growth of the Web3 ecosystem and the Bitcoin market, investors still need to pay attention to potential risks:

1. The global interest rate policy direction is uncertain, which may affect the valuation of risk assets.
2. Regulatory disturbances remain a significant variable, and extreme situations may impact core infrastructure.
3. Emerging technologies pose security risks and may trigger systemic risk events
4. Structural differentiation in the market may lead to phase bubbles.

Investment strategy recommendations:

1. Conservative investors can allocate Bitcoin as a long-term investment, gradually increasing their positions in mainstream assets.
2. Aggressive investors focus on projects with real applications in the infrastructure sector.
3. Use methods such as batch positioning and dynamic management to avoid letting emotions dominate decision-making.
4. Strengthen the consideration of project policy sensitivity and layout in regions with clear compliance trends.

Overall, the crypto market is at a cyclical turning point in 2025. One should build a cross-cycle allocation logic based on an understanding of structural trends to move steadily in the future market.

5. Conclusion

In the first half of 2025, the crypto market enters a new round of structural bull run under multiple favorable factors. Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 barrier, and the Web3 ecosystem application scenarios are expanding. However, risks such as policy changes and regulatory uncertainties still exist. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, investors should maintain calm judgment and follow a strategy that combines value-driven approaches, policy guidance, and safety margins to seize the core dividends of the next stage.