The weekly inflow of Bitcoin ETF has fallen by 80%, while the popularity of derivation remains high! 95.8% of Holdings are profitable, but there is hidden selling pressure risk | BTC short-term trend analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) recent market conditions have become stagnant, with Glassnode's latest report revealing key contradictory signals: driven by institutional enthusiasm, the weekly fund inflow of BTC Spot ETF has plummeted by 80%, marking the largest drop in months; however, the heat in the derivatives market remains high, with CME Futures Open Interest still at elevated levels, indicating that traders, especially short-term speculators, have strong bullish expectations for the future. It is also important to note that on-chain data shows that currently 95.8% of BTC supply is in profit, nearing historical highs, which demonstrates long-term strength but also significantly increases the risk of profit-taking. Additionally, the number of active addresses has fallen from the early July peak, with large holders adopting a wait-and-see approach, suggesting that BTC may face a directional choice in the short term. This article will analyze the market divergence signals and their potential impact on coin prices.

Core Contradiction Signal Analysis

1. ETF Fund Inflows Sharply Decrease: Are Institutions Taking a "Halftime Break"?

   • According to the Glassnode report, the weekly fund inflow of the BTC Spot ETF plummeted by 80% compared to the previous week, marking the most significant decline in recent times.

   • This is a cooling signal that cannot be ignored for a market primarily driven by institutional funds.

     

     (Source: Glassnode)

2. Derivation market remains hot: Speculators bet on continued rise

   • CryptoQuant data shows that the open interest of CME Bitcoin futures remains high.

   • This indicates that despite the slowing inflow of ETF funds, traders (especially short-term speculators) are still actively positioning themselves, expecting prices to further pump.

     

     (Source: CryptoQuant)

3. High Profit Share: The Double-Edged Sword Effect is Highlighted

   • On-chain data reveals that currently 95.8% of BTC circulating supply is in a profitable state (i.e., the current price is higher than the purchase cost price).

   • Positive Aspect: This is a strong proof of the long-term resilience of the Bitcoin network and investor confidence.

   • Risk Aspect: When almost all coin holders are making profits, the motivation to take profits significantly increases. If the price rise momentum weakens or stagnates, it may trigger a concentrated sell-off.

     

     (Source: CryptoQuant)

4. On-chain activity cools down: large holders enter a "wait-and-see period"

   • The weekly active address count measuring network activity has fallen back from its peak in early July.

   • This implies that large wallet holders (whales) are currently hesitant: neither panic selling nor actively buying, the market has entered a "wait-and-see stalemate".

     

     (Source: CryptoQuant)

Market Status: Hesitant Balance Overall, the Bitcoin market is in a delicate hesitation period:

• Institutional pace slows down: The sharp decline in ETF capital inflows indicates that large buyers are temporarily taking a "break."
• On-chain momentum weakens: Active addresses decline, large holders remain inactive.
• **Speculative enthusiasm remains: ** The high open interest in the derivation market indicates that traders have not given up on bullish expectations.
• Extremely High Profit Positions: The vast majority of holders are in a floating profit state, and the market is exceptionally sensitive to negative news or loss of momentum.

Potential Pathways and Risk Warning

• Key Upward Movement: The market urgently needs new demand to enter (whether retail or institutional) to absorb potential selling pressure and drive the price above the current range.
• Downside Risk:
  • If the market lacks new buying support, the extremely high profit ratio (95.8%) may become a "tinderbox". Any signs of price weakness may trigger a Close Position wave among short-term holders (who are more sensitive to price).
  • This kind of sell-off may trigger a spread of panic sentiment, ultimately forming a short-term technical correction on the BTC price chart.
  • The decline in the number of active addresses further increases market vulnerability, as the lack of large buy support makes prices more susceptible to selling pressure.

Conclusion: The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a "silent struggle"—the sharp decline in ETF fund inflows stands in stark contrast to the high heat of derivatives, while the super high profit positions and the cooling on-chain activity highlight potential risks. The 95.8% profit ratio is like the "Sword of Damocles"; it showcases long-term confidence but also makes the market exceptionally sensitive to short-term fluctuations. The key to future trends lies in whether it can attract new incremental funds to enter to absorb potential profit-taking and revitalize upward momentum. If demand does not emerge in time, investors should be wary of the risk of short-term technical corrections. Until the direction is clear, traders are advised to closely monitor the changes in ETF fund flows, the movements of large on-chain positions (whale activities), and the strength of key price support levels, while also implementing risk management. The next significant market movement for BTC may require waiting for a unification of market divergence signals.